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It might have seemed like early admissions was toast after the University of Virginia, a public school, followed Harvard and Princeton in abolishing the practice this fall.

But no other school has jumped on the bandwagon in the past month, and some are now saying the trend has petered out.

Harvard University announced in September that it would be eliminating early admissions in 2008, citing a desire to remove barriers for low-income students.

Princeton and the University of Virginia quickly followed suit, and a number of other schools stated that they were considering making similar moves as well.

Penn officials have said repeatedly that the University's binding early decision program will not change.

David Hawkins, director of public policy at the National Association for College Admission Counseling, said the fact that no school has dropped early admissions in the past month is a "good indicator that the trend won't necessarily go that far."

One factor in other schools' hesitation may be the lack of evidence that the move will really abolish barriers for low-income students, he said.

"There's just not the feeling that this is really going to solve the access puzzle," he added.

Nevertheless, Hawkins said, it is possible that a few more schools will make announcements in the near future - but not a "landslide" of them.

Tony Pals, spokesman for the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, said higher-education experts had initially predicted that few schools would follow Harvard's lead.

"I don't think it surprises anyone" that no schools have dropped early admissions since the University of Virginia did in late September, he said.

But even if Harvard's move has not sparked a domino effect, experts agree that it made a difference by thrusting the issue of admissions fairness into the limelight.

It has "breathed life into an issue that was fairly dormant," Hawkins said.

Even if only a handful of institutions follow suit, "every institution in the country has taken note of the issue and is asking itself, 'What can we do to help our lower-income students?'" Pals said.

The trend of dropping early admissions, no matter its size, is shaping the national conversation, he added.

And not everyone is as pessimistic about the trend's staying power.

Lloyd Thacker, executive director of the admissions-reform advocacy group Education Conservancy, said he expects more schools to change their policies.

"I know that serious conversations are going on at schools with which [Penn] competes," Thacker said.

Eliminating early admissions is an opportunity for colleges to demonstrate their educational leadership and to contribute to the educational welfare of the country, he added.

Hawkins said earlier this year that in any event, schools will be less likely to make changes as it gets closer to January, when schools will have to begin creating brochures and filling out surveys for college guides for the next academic year.

Schools making a change for the fall of 2008 will most likely do it by this December, since doing it any later could affect the recruitment process, he added. If a school does not move by the end of this year, it's not likely to do so in the near future, he said.

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