In the midst of falling national approval ratings for the Republican Party, a smile should be the last thing on the face of John McCain, the Republican nominee for president.
But in Pennsylvania, McCain has reason to be happy.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's primary win over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama signaled that the Democratic nomination is nowhere close to being over, giving McCain more time to get out his message to voters without worrying about an opponent.
Locally, it means Pennsylvania, a traditional swing-state that has leaned Democratic, is anything but a sure-win for Democrats this fall.
"While Democrats have been focused on the primary, we've been focused on the general" election, said Michael Barley, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Republican Party.
McCain has been laying the groundwork for that contest, speaking occasionally in locations across the state and articulating his positions to voters. He spoke on health-care policy in Allentown this week.
"Republicans see an opening to reach out to 'Reagan Democrats,'" said Randall Miller, St. Joseph's University history professor and political analyst, referring to conservative Democrats who are more open to voting for Republicans.
Miller said those voters, many of them white and working-class, were central to Clinton's April 22 victory, and could defect to McCain if Obama is the nominee.
College Republicans President Zac Byer, a College sophomore, agreed, saying that the College Republicans are likely to focus on Philadelphia suburbs, where many of those voters live, during the general election.
Based on results from the Pennsylvania primary, Obama's increasing problems attracting white working-class voters were magnified, Miller said, and seemingly took on a racial overtone, with Clinton winning every white demographic, including young voters.
Just before the primary, Obama faced increasing criticism for remarks about small-town voters that both McCain and Clinton characterized as "elitist" and "out-of-touch."
In an Obama-McCain election, Pennsylvania Republicans are expected to use that label to work in their favor, Miller said.
But McCain will still have plenty of obstacles to a Pennsylvania victory, even if Obama is the nominee.
President Bush is suffering from record-low approval ratings, and Republicans are largely taking the blame for a weak economy, Miller said.
According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Obama would beat McCain by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania, if the general election were held today. Clinton would beat McCain by slightly higher numbers, the poll said.
Whether Clinton or Obama is the nominee, it is "pretty hard to believe a Democrat could lose Pennsylvania," Miller said.
