Yesterday's attacks on military sites and al-Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan may have surprised American citizens, but they didn't surprise many experts.
In fact, some even said they expected the strategic air strikes to occur exactly when they did.
"It's a replay of a lot of what we were doing during the Gulf War," said Political Science Professor Stephen Gale, a terrorism expert. "There's no question that we were going to have some form of military action."
But while the country focuses on air strikes overseas, Gale said he believes the real risk is at home.
"The FBI and CIA all say that it is virtually certain that another terrorist strike is imminent," he said. "The plans by the terrorists were in place, and they were waiting for the retaliation."
Political Science Professor Alvin Rubenstein echoed Gale's concern, saying that the United States must be on a higher state of alert than ever before.
"If there are members of the al-Qaeda group in the U.S., they will certainly try to do something," Rubenstein said. "That's going to go on for a long time."
While several observers are preparing for the likelihood of a second terrorist attack on American soil in the space of a month, others focus their attention on the attacks on strategic targets in Afghanistan, claiming they were imminent.
Rubenstein, who speculated that the bombing of targets in Afghanistan will continue throughout this week, said that he knew attacks were inevitable when President Bush first spoke to the nation on the evening of Sept. 11.
"The president had announced that we were at war against the al-Qaeda group and those who harbor them," Rubenstein said. "It was clear that short of the Taliban handing over Osama bin Laden, we were going to attack."
Although it is not yet known how effective the attacks were in debilitating the Taliban's military forces, Political Science Professor Avery Goldstein said the aim of the attacks is clear.
"The most logical thing is that this first wave is to knock out the Taliban's ability to resist," Goldstein said. "The hope is that after this initial shock there will be some internal collapse in the Taliban."
Goldstein said he believes that the U.S. will take a wait-and-see attitude to determine whether ground attacks are necessary, but the hope is that Afghan rebel forces will provide the resources to help avoid using allied troops.
Gale, however, said that he believes ground action is likely, and Washington insiders tell him that the public may not even hear about ground strikes if they do happen.
"They do anticipate some sort of ground action, some sort of commando operation," Gale said. "I think they're going to try to keep their targets as quiet as possible, for as long as possible."
Goldstein said that the worst case scenario for the United States would be if the Taliban does not collapse and the al-Qaeda leaders spread into the mountains and the countryside, making tactical strikes much more difficult.
According to Gale, in addition to the air strikes, the presence of American troops in Mecca and Israeli control of Jerusalem are two of the many factors that are currently motivating the al-Qaeda terrorists.
Gale said he believes that a terrorist attack, possibly focused on commercial or political targets on the East Coast, could happen as early as today.
"The terrorists are saying, `We have spoken to them with a voice of God. If they do not hear it, then we will speak to them again,'" Gale said.
The unpredictability of terrorism, Goldstein said, is what stacks the deck in favor of the terrorists. Although the nation is currently on guard, preventing a smaller scale terrorist attack will be difficult.
Rubenstein agreed, saying that the United States "is going to have to take the kinds of measures that other countries have had to take for years."
The United States "has learned what other countries have known for decades, that there are groups out there who are looking to overthrow existing governments," he said.
Gale said he believes that the United States does not currently have the security measures in place to stop a future terrorist attack.
"If [the terrorists] play by a rule book and follow our plans, I guess we could stop them," he said. "It certainly wouldn't stop me."
