Pennsylvania's primary elections, previously set for May 21, will likely be pushed back to July 16, and political experts believe the move will negatively affect voter turnout.
The most prominent race in the primary election is the contentious Democratic gubernatorial race between former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell and Auditor General Bob Casey Jr.
The primaries will be postponed because of a dispute over the state legislature's redistricting plans. A federal panel has deemed the legislature's plan to change the makeup of the state's voting districts unconstitutional.
The Republican-controlled state house and senate approved a redistricting plan that, according to many, favored Republicans in the congressional races.
"In Pennsylvania, as in most American states, when one party controls both the state legislatures and the governor they can set up the redistricting in whatever flagrant partisan way they want, as the Republicans did in Pennsylvania," Penn Political Science Department Chairman Jack Nagel said.
While the two parties are fairly evenly divided both within the state and currently in the state house, "this plan was designed to produce 13 Republicans and six Democrats [in the house] through gerrymandering," Nagel said.
The plan was signed by Gov. Mark Schweiker, a Republican, but a three-judge federal panel ruled that the plan was unconstitutional.
The panel's ruling was based not on party lines but on the fact that the congressional districts were unequal in population. Based on year 2000 census figures, the districts' populations would have varied by 19 votes.
Some are still hoping that a federal court will put a stay on this map that would allow it to be used for this year's elections but changed before 2004.
On Monday, however, both houses approved a new congressional map without any variation in population. The Senate also passed a measure to delay the primaries until July 16, giving congressional candidates enough time to file petitions in their newly drawn districts.
Currently, Rendell's campaign remains focused on the original date -- May 21 -- in their campaign plans.
"We have not spent very much time looking at a possible move," Rendell campaign spokesman Dan Fee said. "We're still focused on winning the election on May 21. If the primary moves we would adjust accordingly."
Attorney General Mike Fisher, the only Republican in the gubernatorial race, faces no opposition in the primary and remains focused on November.
"We look forward to the fall election," Fisher spokesman Kent Gates said. "Whether the primary is in May or July, we're looking for the war in the fall."
A July primary date, said Political Science Professor Henry Teune, could benefit Casey's campaign because of the different voting blocks each candidate appeals to.
"The union guys should turn out for Casey," Teune said. "They'll be sitting around drinking beers [in July]. The University kids are 'ra-ra' for Rendell but they're not going to be campaigning for Rendell in July."
Officials from Rendell's campaign, however, maintain that their candidate will still be successful should the primary date change.
"We're always concerned about voter turnout," Fee said. "We would have to change the way we get the voters to turn out. It would be different tactics but not different goals."
Regardless of which Democratic candidate might benefit from a delay to the May primaries, many agree that a summer date will result in a lower voter turnout across the state.
"Historically, the Democrats have a lower turnout than Republicans in elections in general, particularly in the primaries, so it could definitely have an effect on the democratic primary," state Democratic Party spokeswoman Mia DeVane said. "Many folks are not used to going to the polls in the middle of summer."
According to Teune, none of the candidates is grabbing the public's attention enough to expect a high turnout, especially during the summer.
"They are not firing anybody up," Teune said of the gubernatorial candidates. "Fisher, the Republican guy's a sleeper... Rendell will go out there and plop around and spend a lot of money, but whose going to be paying attention?"
While the date of the state's primary is still in doubt, the race between Rendell and Casey remains bitter.
Casey's campaign has continued to release statements claiming Rendell has made false statements throughout his campaign regarding his past and current endorsements.
According to the Rendell camp, while Rendell's claim of an endorsement by Pottsville, Pa., Mayor John Riley, was indeed a mistake, most claims of false statements have been fabrications by Casey's campaign.
"Mostly [the Casey campaign] has been just wrong," Fee said. "For once, we were wrong and we apologize. Casey has been wrong and has never apologized."
But Teune says a later primary -- and thus the prolonging of the debate between Casey and Rendell -- will hurt the Democrats' bid for the governor's mansion in November.
"If they say July, it's bad for Democrats. If they say September, it's worse," Teune said.
Meanwhile, a decision on the date for the primaries is expected from the state soon.
"It would be a great shame to have primary delayed," Nagel said. "The gubernatorial candidates are collateral damage in the fight over house redistricting."
