Penn prognosticators predict problems for new president

Regardless of whether George W. Bush or Al Gore becomes America's next leader, Penn professors predict that the biggest problem facing the new president will be a lack of popular support. According to campus experts, the minute margins will make it difficult to govern and the possible disparity between electoral and popular votes could give the leader less legitimacy. Penn Political Science Professor Marie Gottschalk stressed the importance of the dead-split results. "The problem will be that whoever goes into the White House will have such a divided map," she said. And Jerome Maddox, also a professor in the department, said the new president will not have a clear mandate entering the Oval Office. "He does not have much of a mandate," Maddox said. "He will not be able to govern very well at all in the next two-to-four years." Maddox added that the lack of firm support will force Bush or Gore to modify their positions. And, if Bush is elected, he would be pushed further to the center. "He has to find a way to govern moderately," he said. Gottschalk added to this view, explaining that Bush might have to name several Democrats to his Cabinet if he is elected. "If Bush wins, then you may see a much more bipartisan cabinet." This would be in keeping with the Texas governor's campaign stances, which stressed bipartisanship. And yesterday he once again said his government would attempt to unite the parties. However, Maddox said the moderating effect might not extend to Bush's pro-life stance, which could lead to a Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. "It [the issue of appointing justices] becomes a much more political matter. Obviously, he [Bush] wants strict constructionists," Maddox said. Both Gottschalk and Maddox said this bizarre outcome, with Gore apparently winning the popular vote and Bush probably winning the electoral, is actually the opposite of what people were predicting. "The expectation was that Gore was going to win the electoral and George Bush was going to win the popular," Gottschalk explained. Beyond the irregularities of the election itself, the media is also getting some criticism for its handling of the Florida results. Many people have expressed anger at news organizations like CNN and ABC for prematurely calling the all-important Florida election. However, Maddox said if news organizations show more restraint in their predictions in the future, it will be because of their own self control. "This is going to be a matter of self-regulation," Maddox said. Maddox also defended the reliability of exit polling, saying that the numerous mistakes in calling the Florida race were not due to statistical flaws, but rather, errors in entering the data. Despite the increasing likelihood that the winner of the popular vote would not win the election, neither Maddox nor Gottschalk thought the Constitution would be amended to prevent it from happening again. "It looks like Gore is winning by 150,000 votes," Maddox said. "That's not a lot." As of yesterday, Maddox predicted a Bush victory. However, Gottschalk expressed the same sentiment as most Americans, unsure who would be the next president. "It's hard to say [who is going to win] at this point," Gottschalk admitted. "It all depends on what happens in Florida."