If threats such as the recent shootings near campus persist Penn might pay when accepted students pick a school in a few months.
According to Admissions Dean Lee Stetson, concerns about safety might affect the April yield -- the number of accepted students who ultimately decide to attend Penn.
Fears over crime have been heightened by two campus shootings in the last month. Engineering sophomore Mari Oishi was hit in the leg by a stray bullet near the corner of 38th and Walnut streets on Jan. 15, and Philadelphia resident William Hurt was shot and killed in the Philly Diner on Dec. 25. In the wake of the incidents, administrators are pouring money and resources into beefing up security.
During the mid-1990s, the University's higher crime rates coincided with poorer rankings in major publications and fewer applicants. The decline in crime over the past decade has paralleled the rise of Penn in the U.S. News & World Report rankings and a drop in its admit rate.
However, Stetson does not think the major mid-'90s crime surge significantly influenced admissions data. For example, the shooting of a junior during a botched robbery in 1997 was followed the next year by a record number of applications to Penn.
The 2006 admissions season has been promising to date. Early decision applications to Penn jumped 21 percent, and the rate of early admission fell sharply from the last few years' figures.
Stetson believes that potential students and their parents will respond favorably to heightened safety initiatives in the wake of recent crimes.
"Parents and students are interested in [security] but are reasonable about the realities of campus life," he wrote in an e-mail.
College sophomore and tour guide Dan Strigenz said that no one on a tour he gave last Monday expressed concern about or even awareness of Oishi's shooting.
Tour members asked slightly more questions than usual about safety amid last semester's increased crime rates, Strigenz said, adding that he told visitors that Penn is taking any and all steps to address the problem.
"People seemed satisfied with that," he said.
Patrick Bradley, who was accepted to the College last month, said that the recent crimes do not diminish his willingness to come to Penn.
The shootings are "both very tragic and fairly disturbing and frightening, but the two incidents alone wouldn't have [had] a drastic influence on my decision to apply to Penn," said Bradley, a senior at State College Area High School in State College, Pa.
