Number of new Ph.D.s falls across the nation

The number of doctorates granted in the United States fell in 1999 for the first time in 14 years, according to a national study released this month. The drop was sharpest in engineering and science fields. While Penn Engineering administrators say they have not felt the crunch, officials from the the School of Arts and Sciences admit they have seen some difficulty filling physical science classes. The "Survey of Earned Doctorates" -- released by the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center -- found a 3.6 percent drop in Ph.D. degrees for 1999. Engineering schools saw a decrease near 10 percent, and the physical sciences saw drops of 5 to 7 percent. "It's a decline, but I don't look at it as unexpected," said University of Chicago Professor Allen Sanderson, a senior research scientist with NORC. "It's sort of leveled off over the last couple years anyway." The decline is the second largest in the 40 years that the survey has been conducted. But with the total number of degrees at 40,410, Sanderson sees the dip in physical science degrees as a natural plateau -- similar to one that occurred after the large burst of interest from the Sputnik satellite launch wore off in the 1950s. "I think 40,000 strikes me as sort of a reasonable number," Sanderson said. "Together with Ph.D.s, JDs, MBAs, and MDs, that's about 200,000 highly educated people." The survey, sponsored by six federal agencies, included 392 American research universities. Penn granted 389 doctorates in 1999 -- the 26th largest number granted nationally, according to Sanderson. About 60 of those degrees are granted by the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, according to SEAS Director of Academic Affairs Joe Sun. Sun said that the national decline has not been a concern for SEAS administrators. "Our numbers over the recent years have been fairly steady," Sun said. "Our number of applicants grows each year. We're experiencing something like 35 percent growth [in applications]." Sun said that the number of applicants for the Ph.D. program this year was up about 30 percent from last year. But he added that the number of doctorates granted by the school has held steady because the program is small and competitive. "We won't be admitting any more than we have been," Sun said. "By nature, the Ph.D. program is highly selective. Not in recent memory there hasn't been difficulty in filling our Ph.D. slots with qualified individuals." Sun suspects that an increase in the popularity and status of the University and the Engineering doctoral program have contributed to the increase in applications to SEAS despite the national decline. But there has been a decline both in funding and in applications for physical science doctoral programs in SAS, according to Joseph Farrell, Director of Graduate Studies. "It's actually kind of hard to recruit students in the physical sciences," Farrell said. "And federal support for physical sciences has been cut back since the cold war. I don't think it's having a seriously detrimental effect to our program, but its been challenging to raise grants." Farrell said that the application statistics in the physical sciences seem to fluctuate more than other fields as prospective students must choose between academia and industry in an ever-changing job market. The study also showed that women earned 42.5 percent of all doctorates. Of U.S. citizens, 16 percent were racial or ethnic minorities. These figures were new highs for both groups, and results of steady upward trends. And despite a small decrease in the humanities in 1999, there was still a 15.3 percent increase in humanities doctorates over the period from 1994 to 1999 -- the largest increase of any field.