Job market will affect student vote

"It's the economy, stupid." These four words, hanging on the wall of Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton's campaign headquarters in Little Rock, are there to prevent campaign staffers from losing sight -- for even a moment -- of what the main issue in voters' minds is, this year. And a recent Daily Pennsylvanian/Ivy League opinion poll suggests those four words are on the minds of many students as well. According to the poll, 73 percent of respondents at the University -- and 67 percent of Ivy League respondents -- said they consider the state of the job market "very important" in influencing their vote. Political Science Professor Jack Nagel said he thinks Clinton will be the beneficiary of the electorate's anxieties about the economy. "The strongest predictor of presidential popularity and the fate of the incumbent is the state of the economy," Nagel said. "The fact that it hasn't been doing so well is why Bush is in trouble." "I can't think of an example where the economy was this flat for this long, this close to an election, where the party stayed in office," Nagel added. Nagel said voters tend to choose based on an incumbent's track record, more than on the basis of what the challenger might do. He compared President Bush's situation to that of then-President Jimmy Carter in 1980. Nagel said he believes Clinton will carry roughly 50 percent of the popular vote nationally, largely on the strength of Clinton's success in emphasizing the economy as the key issue of the campaign. He predicted that Bush will win roughly 40 percent of the popular vote, and that Ross Perot will take 10 percent or less. He predicted Clinton will win roughly 450 of the 538 electoral votes in a win comparable to Ronald Reagan's 1980 win over Carter. Reagan took 489 electoral votes in 1980. The DP/Ivy league poll indicated that of the 291 University respondents who said they considered the job market a "very important" factor in influencing their vote, 51 percent said they would vote for Clinton, with 20 percent supporting Bush, 13 percent backing Perot and 16 percent undecided. Of the respondents who said they considered the job market a "somewhat important" factor, 56 percent said they would vote for Clinton, with 18 percent for Bush, and 13 percent each for Perot and undecided. But Political Science Professor Henry Teune said he did not know how much of a factor the economy and job market would actually play. "The people running the campaigns think it's decisive," Teune said. "But I don't think anyone really knows." "The campaigns are surely obsessed with the jobs thing," he said. Teune said he thinks the president's effect on the economy and job market is usually "marginal." "The critical component in people taking risks [which can stimulate growth] is confidence," Teune said. "The president can set atmospherics and the tone -- at least, that's what the polls say." "The word is that we're in a recession," Teune said. "Technically, we haven't been in a recession for several quarters. The issue is slow growth. "We're growing, but not at a rate that people would be comfortable with, which is something on the order of three percent," he added. Teune said if Clinton wins the election, and the economy starts to pick up, the Clinton camp will take credit. "Everybody will take credit for something that is desirable, which is fair enough," Teune said. "Anyone would do it."