What you should know about Hurricane Matthew

Two weeks ago, a tropical disturbance formed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Many forecasters were aware of its formation, but few put much thought into what it may become in just a week’s time.

Between Sept. 25 and 27, global computer models began showing what would become Matthew as a storm system that could threaten the United States, especially the Southeast. Forecasters such as myself began eyeing the disturbance in case it developed into a more serious threat. It did just that.

It took a couple of days for it to get organized as it moved westward in the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. The system then gained sufficient organization to be named Tropical Storm Matthew.

It was at this point that computer models were agreeing on the idea that this storm could reek havoc on the Southeastern United States. As it moved closer to the eastern Caribbean, Matthew rapidly became a hurricane and intensified, reaching Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds; the strongest a hurricane can become on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Although, even though it was nearing the Continental United States, many forecasters such as myself were uncertain as to where Matthew would track. Most models had it making its way up the Eastern seaboard, but where along the coast it would track could’ve had either devastating effects or little to no impact.

That variation of about 100 miles is what mattered most, but it was yet to be determined, which path would be taken. We did know that given how strong it was, Matthew was bound to destroy parts of the Caribbean, especially in Haiti.

As of today, over 840 people have been reported dead as a result of the wind, rain and storm surge from the storm.

To put it into perspective, estimated rainfall is about 20 inches. If that was snow, on average, it would equate to 200 inches. Unfortunately, for them, the damage rivals that of the 2010 earthquake.

As Matthew remained a Major Hurricane, it began to move away from Haiti and towards the Florida coastline. It was then that meteorologists around the country came to realize that Matthew could very well be one of the most catastrophic tropical systems on record if it were to make landfall on the Florida coast.

However, the worst-case scenario never actually came to fruition. It came within peer miles of West Palm Beach and Daytona, but never actually made landfall until it continued its journey up towards South Carolina.

The impacts of Matthew were still significant with enormous sections of the Florida coast getting eroded and incredible amounts of damage resulting from the 100+ mph winds. Incredible wind speeds were supposed to engulf the coast, but in reality max winds only reached a little over 100 mph.

After brushing up the Florida and Georgia coastlines, Matthew deteriorated into a Category 3, and eventually, a Category 1 storm as it made landfall on the shores of South Carolina. At this point, the most severe impacts would come in the form of rain for the Carolina’s as over a foot and a half of rain fell in some spots.

In fact, some of the rain we saw this past weekend was from Matthew.

The storm system is now in a post-tropical state meaning it has completed its tropical cycle and has become a standard low pressure system. It will continue its track out to sea and not back towards Florida as some originally thought.

Luckily, we were spared the worst of this historic hurricane.

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