With the effects of climate change, the most sought-after resource in the future might not be oil, but water.
Best-selling author and Anthropology professor at University of California, Santa Barbara Brian Fagan spoke last night at the Penn Museum, urging an audience to heed the warnings of past struggles with climate change and the dangers of drought.
Fagan presented the findings of the International Catastrophes Conference 2008, a two-day scholarly meeting held this week at Penn that focused on exploring the impact of past climate change on human civilization.
Conference attendees concluded that climate change caused by events such as volcanic eruptions and hurricanes have impacted human civilization in a variety of ways, causing the Irish Potato Famine and the fall the Roman Empire. However, according to Fagan, the most pressing concern of climate change is drought, which he said is rapidly on the rise.
"If there is one lesson we should learn from the past impact of climate change, it is that we better take drought seriously," he said, adding that extreme drought could plague 30 percent of the world within in a century.
"There is a huge possibility of increased starvation," Fagin said.
According to Michael Danti, an archeology professor at Boston University, Fagan's assessment of the importance of drought is no exaggeration and he stated that water scarcity has political implications.
"There is no question that there is a connection in areas experiencing drought between the lack of water and conflict," said Danti. "We see this in competition for water sources and discontent prompted by famine."
The participants of the conference refrained from entering the volatile debate over the role of human activity in influencing climate change, instead focusing their attention on how to cope with the issue.
Vernon Scarborough, a professor of Anthropology at the University of Cincinnati suggested that steps need to be taken to make our civilization more resilient by decreasing dependence on resources such as oil and making efficient use of rural lands.
Fagan also highlighted the need to shift attention away from the politics of climate change, and focus more on research regarding the impact of past climate crises and their implications for the future.
"These findings are very significant. But leaders and policy makers simply are not interested in them. They only want information that supports a political agenda," said Fagan. "But if we don't look back to the lessons of the past, we will be at a huge disadvantage in the future."
