Oh the weather outside makes crime frightful

The snow and hail that plagued the area last weekend may likely be the last evidence of winter, but warmer spring weather might bring some unpleasant side effects of its own.

Division of Public Safety officials and criminology experts say they expect crime rates to increase as warmer weather hits the area and more people head outdoors.

Ellen Cohn, a criminology professor at Florida International University who specializes in the effects of weather on crime, said that, as the weather gets warmer, people spend less time doing routine activities - habitual tasks like work and classes - during which one is unlikely to be the victim of a violent crime.

Alcohol consumption is also more frequent, often leading to higher crime rates.

Cohn said that all of these changes in behavior generally lead to more crimes between persons.

"In general, violent crime seems to be more affected by temperature than property crimes," she said.

Experts also say there are simply more opportunities for crime to happen in the spring as people try to enjoy the warm weather.

"It puts more people out on the street, especially late at night," Criminology department Chariman Lawrence Sherman said. "When young men are on street corners and encounter each other, insults or glances or other perceived threats that provoke violence are more likely to occur."

This rise also happens with property crimes, DPS officials said.

"There's more activity - more people are out," Capt. Joe Fischer of the Penn Police said. "The opportunistic thief will take advantage of that."

Fischer also said crimes that occur outdoors, such as thefts at outside cafes and bike thefts, are particularly likely to increase in the spring.

However, Cohn added that, when temperatures reach a certain point, crime does begin to taper off.

"Up to about 85 degrees, [crime rates] go pretty much straight up," she said. "But after temperature continues to increase, we are more interested in getting out of the heat than we are in beating each other up."

Fischer added that extreme temperatures - both hot and cold - usually correlate with a decrease in crime because, at those times, "people are somewhat inactive."

Temperature is not the only component of weather that can influence crime, Sherman said.

He pointed to statistics that show that crime rates sometimes go up when there is higher humidity, attributing the increases to people feeling aggravated or "more on edge."

So knowing these factors, what can police forces do?

Cohn said police should "be aware of it and staff accordingly," which is what DPS officials say happens when spring rolls around.

"When there are large amounts of people out, we want to be out," Penn Police Chief Mark Dorsey said.

But Sherman said that, while police should consider weather reports in staffing decisions, this method is not foolproof.

"Weather forecasts are not always right," he said. "You'll have times when you don't have enough officers and times when you have too many. We could save money and use resources more effectively if we had more effective forecasting sources. It's a future idea."

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