The Penn men's basketball team, which clinched an NCAA Tournament berth with its win over Columbia last Saturday, could be in just about any corner of the country when it takes the floor for March Madness in two weeks. And with eight possible cities in eight different states and no other team having clinched a invitation to the big dance, it is anyone's guess as to where the Quakers will end up.
Talk has already begun of what seed the Quakers will get in this year's field of 65 teams. And yesterday afternoon, some of college basketball's best-known pundits weighed in on Penn's chances for success later this month. They also gave their predictions about some of Penn's Big 5 brethren.
ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi, who writes the popular "Bracketology" feature in which he predicts the tournament's first round matchups, has had Penn set as a 13 seed ever since the Quakers clinched the nation's first automatic postseason berth.
"It could rise to a 12, but the odds are against it," he said. "If you think about who the final at-larges are going to be, they're generally going to be middle teams from major conferences, and I'm not sure that this year, Penn's profile competes well with that."
As of yesterday, Lunardi had Penn playing a No. 4-seeded Gonzaga in Tuscon, Ariz., as part of the Austin Regional.
Ken Pomeroy, who runs a widely-used statistical ranking Web site, agreed with the 13 seed but disagreed with Penn's chances to move up, saying in an e-mail that the Quakers have "no more quality wins out there."
"Thirteen seems to be the right place for them if they win out," he said.
As far as potential matchups are concerned, Lunardi said that Penn would want to play "a team that [it] can make dance to its tune," as far as tempo and offensive style are concerned, arguing that Penn "could hang with Gonzaga."
He also cited George Washington as the right kind of opponent, "because they leave guys open [and] Penn's not going to get suckered into playing that above-the-rim game."
Lunardi acknowledged that the Colonials' losses in recent weeks to Xavier and Saint Joseph's have made them a bad example, but added that much will come down to Fran Dunphy's "X-and-O guy" coaching style.
"If they play a team that's really athletic and really well-coached, [Penn's] going to get drilled because they aren't going to be able to keep up," he said. "But the number of teams out there that aren't really well coached is probably greater than the public thinks."
Pomeroy noted that upsets "usually involve great three-point shooting by the underdog," which could play into the hands of players like Tim Begley.
"A team like Syracuse that puts more emphasis on defending the lane than the three-point line would be susceptible to that kind of thing," he said.
As for teams Penn would want to avoid, Pomeroy cited Florida and Cincinnati, "even though they have a history of tournament disappointments," as well as Charlotte.
The Quakers won't be the only ones representing Philadelphia in the tournament, as Villanova is almost surely going to get an at-large bid and Saint Joseph's is the current favorite to represent the Atlantic 10.
Jim Sukup of the Collegiate Basketball News predicted in an e-mail that the Wildcats would reach "the Regional Semifinals unless a major upset" occurs, while Pomeroy said that "teams will be looking to avoid Villanova and not vice versa."
Pomeroy also called the Wildcats "the most dangerous of the Philly teams," and said that "they do have the firepower to compete with the high seeds, so if they get some breaks they could go very far."
Sukup said that the Hawks have a chance of an at-large bid, but "would probably need to win out and go to the conference tournament final game." He also said that the injury to senior forward John Bryant "could be a negative for at-large consideration."
Pomeroy, however, said that St. Joe's "has no chance at an at-large" because of its 65-60 loss at Rhode Island last Saturday. He also said that Bryant's broken arm "is not a big loss," and would only make them more dependent on their perimeter shooting.
But Pomeroy did sound one hopeful note for Hawks fans. If the original reports of Bryant's injury -- which said that he would be out three to four weeks -- prove true, he could return for the Sweet 16, creating "another Terrell Owens situation."
As if the usual March Madness wasn't enough already.
