No one is disputing that the big issues in the race for Pennsylvania governor are economics and education, but experts are at odds over how much the election will be affected by that perennial hot-button issue -- abortion.
Democrat Ed Rendell, mayor of Philadelphia from 1991 to 1999, is pro-choice, while Republican Mike Fisher, the State Attorney General, is pro-life.
If elected, Rendell would maintain Pennsylvania's current abortion laws, while Fisher would sign a bill outlawing abortion if the United States Supreme Court reversed its Roe v. Wade decision. Fisher supports abortion only in cases where the woman's life is in danger, but he is flexible on the issue in cases of rape or incest.
The abortion debate is heated in Pennsylvania, with pro-choice and pro-life views cutting across party lines. But some say abortion will not be as major of an issue in this race as it has been in the past.
"My gut tells me that abortion is not going to be one of the driving issues in this campaign," said Berwood Yost, who conducts polls for IssuesPA, a project of the nonpartisan Pennsylvania Economy League.
"People are very concerned about the economy, very concerned about taxes and school funding, and because of that the social issues really are secondary to the economic issues."
And Fisher's campaign is confident that most voters will vote for whomever they feel has the better overall program, regardless of that candidate's position on abortion.
"Someone who may be pro-choice will vote for Mike Fisher because they like his position on taxes or education," Fisher spokesman Kevin Harley said.
But Monica Mills, political director of the National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League, said no matter what the polls show, abortion is always a big issue to a large percentage of the voters.
"They may not say that it's their number one issue or the top issue in polling that we see, but... I do believe it's an issue in this election," Mills said.
So far in the general election campaign, neither of the major-party candidates has made much of his position on the abortion question.
According to Penn Political Science Department Chairman Jack Nagel, this may be due to a lot of party cross-over in terms of Pennsylvanians' views on abortion.
"When it cuts across party constituencies, as it does in Pennsylvania, then you lose as much as you gain" by coming out strongly on one side or the other, Nagel said.
Rendell spokesman Dan Fee said Fisher does speak about his position on the abortion issue -- but only in front of select audiences.
"Mike Fisher talks about it in the conservative areas, but he wants to hide his views for the most part because he really is the extremist on this issue," Fee said.
Complicating matters is Fisher's selection of running mate. Jane Earll, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, is pro-choice.
According to Nagel, Fisher may have picked Earll as an attempt to balance the Republican ticket and appeal to a broader ideological spectrum of voters.
"It certainly signals that he doesn't want to stake his campaign on this issue, and that he's worried about Rendell's appeal to women and feminists, including people who might otherwise vote Republican -- so he's going to offer them a reason to vote Republican," Nagel said.
But Yost said Earll's presence on the ticket will likely not make much difference in the outcome of the race.
"I don't think she" matters, Yost said. "There's no evidence that people vote for the second person on the ticket. The lieutenant governors do not make a difference."
The Pennsylvania Pro-Life Federation, the state's chapter of the National Right to Life Committee, which endorsed Fisher despite his running mate's pro-choice views, agreed that lieutenant governors are not terribly politically relevant.
"It is the governor that establishes his administration and signs pro-life legislation, so the race is in essence between Mike Fisher and Ed Rendell for governor," said Mary Beliveau, the group's legislative director.
In addition, Earll has "publicly stated that regardless of her personal opinion, theirs would be a pro-life administration," according to Leslie Anastasio, executive director of the Pennsylvania chapter of NARAL.
About the Series Every Friday until the gubernatorial elections in November, The Daily Pennsylvanian will run an article analyzing the major issues on the minds of Pennsylvania voters and how the major candidates are addressing them. As polls change, as the advertisements start to heat up, the DP will focus on the angle coming from each candidate's campaign and the perspective provided by political experts and non-partisan analysts, as well as how ordinary Pennsylvanians react to the messages of Ed Rendell and Mike Fisher. And as the campaigns progress and Nov. 5 approaches, share your thoughts at the dailypennsylvanian.com gubernatorial race forum.
