Despite predictions, youth voter turnout approached or surpassed 2008

Amid expectations that youth turnout in this year’s presidential election would drop off from 2008, early returns are indicating that student-age voters turned out in numbers that came close to or surpassed 2008.

Youth aged 18 to 29 made up 19 percent of the electorate in the 2012 presidential election, up from 18 percent in 2008, according to exit polls. Sixty percent of voters in the lowest age bracket cast their ballot for President Barack Obama.

Official numbers for the total number of voters under 30 who cast ballots on Nov. 6 are not yet available, since not all votes have been counted and certified. Still, early reports indicate that at least 49 percent of Americans under 30 voted, which would put 2012 close to 2008’s mark of just over 52 percent. This year’s number is also expected to rise as more early and absentee ballots are counted after the election.

Political science professor John Lapinski, who works on NBC’s Elections Unit to help make decisions on when to call state races for candidates, cautioned against reading into the overall turnout number, since it usually changes when official vote counts are certified several months after Election Day. Turnout relative to other groups is also more central to the results of an election, he said.

“The thing that’s important here is not so much the overall number, but it’s the share,” Lapinski said. “Were the youth extremely motivated? Probably not quite as what they were in 2008. But they were motivated enough that they turned out in pretty good numbers and relative to the rest of the population they were not down from 2008.”

Turnout among all Penn students is not available, since many students voted absentee in their home states or at off-campus locations along with other Philadelphia voters. However, nearly 3,700 students cast a ballot at seven voting locations on campus, only a slight decrease from 3,833 in 2008.

“With all the problems with the books being incorrect, who knows if and when we’ll ever get the full and correct Philly data from the state about who did or didn’t vote and who is or isn’t registered,” College senior and Penn Leads the Vote Election Day, Volunteer and Database Chair David Weiss said in an email.

Still, many members of the Penn community were pleased that youth turnout remained high.

“The 2012 results were good news for the belief that youth — despite voter turnout rates that remain anemic relative to those of older citizens — are not politically disengaged, and are not only voting at rates that are inching in the right direction but also … gathering politically salient campaign news and information,” political science professor John DiIulio said in an email.

Penn Democrats Communication Director Zac Krowtiz added that since Penn Dems expected turnout to be lower than it was in 2008, he is pleased to have seen so many students vote.

“What we saw on campus was the same excitement to vote for President Obama and what we hope signals a shift from the youth vote being something that fluctuates when there’s more excitement for a candidate to a stable voting bloc,” the College sophomore said.

While the 60 percent of 18 to 29-year-old voters who cast their ballots for Obama is down six points from 2008, the figure represents a growing number of young voters that are leaning Democratic. From 1996 to 2004, the percentage of youth votes for Democratic presidential candidates hovered between 48 and 54 percent, so the 60 percent mark represents a growing advantage for the Democrats among young voters, Lapinski said.

“Young adults under the age of 30 are just broadly speaking more socially liberal than the Republican Party message,” said English professor Dick Polman, also a political reporter for public media service WHYY and The Philadelphia Inquirer. “That was part of the mix, I think, that a lot of young people just viewed the Republicans and Romney as just being out of sync with how America is changing.”

Regardless of the absolute turnout, the combination of an increasingly high youth share of the overall vote and a significant advantage for the Democrats among young voters may have proven decisive.

“A lot of people thought more younger voters would stay home than did,” Lapinski said. “And that was certainly an important part of the story for Democrats.… When you’re winning 60 percent of the age group, a percentage point or two is really consequential.”

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