With more people registered as Democrats than as Republicans in both Philadelphia and the state, Pennsylvania is looking a lot less like a swing state.
But experts say more registered Democrats won't necessarily result in a victory for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.
There 860,507 people registered as Democrats in Philadelphia and only 145,282 registered as Republicans. Statewide, 4,424,022 people are registered as Democrats and 3,229,806 are registered as Republicans, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State as of yesterday.
This is "no surprise," according to Randall Miller, a St. Joseph's University history professor and political analyst. Miller added that "this trend didn't just happen in 2008."
Democrats have put a lot of time and money into registration efforts over the last few years because they "need to attract new voters to be competitive in Pennsylvania," he said.
Democratic registrations in Pennsylvania are up from 3,985,486 in November 2004. Republican registrations, however, have dropped by 175,472 people from 3,405,278 in 2004.
Miller attributes the Democrats' high registration numbers "partly to their methods," but also to the appeal of Obama and the current political climate. "The Democrats really have something to sell this year," he said.
While this could indicate an Obama win in Pennsylvania, "registration doesn't always play into voting behavior," Miller said. "We can't predict how many will show up to the polls."
He added that the Democrats' approach to registration was not simply getting people to register, but also getting information about them, which can then be used for follow-ups and to target certain voters. "It's not just registration, it's mobilization," he said.
Due to both the reasons people registered as Democrats and the Democrats' registration methods, Miller said, Democrats "will probably vote at higher levels than in previous elections."
There are also more people between the ages of 18 and 24 registered as Democrats than as Republicans in Philadelphia, with 118,554 people registered as Democrats and 14,061 people registered as Republicans.
This supports the notion that non-college-educated Philadelphians tend to vote Republican and that college students are generally more liberal than the rest of the population, said Peter Levine, a research director at Tufts University and the director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.
This year, a total of 8,663,965 people registered to vote in Pennsylvania, which is up from 8,366,663 in 2004.
Miller said this could be because the Democratic party was so well organized and because "the Obama campaign has made registration a signature item."
The increased number of registered voters could impact turnout on election day, Miller said, because registration has been "part of a sequenced plan" and not "just a one moment thing."
Since the primary in April, there are 60,844 more people registered as Democrats in Philadelphia, while there are 105 fewer people registered as Republicans.
