Young voters will set a midterm-election record today, according to a national poll released last week.
The poll, which was conducted by Harvard University's Institute of Politics, found that 32 percent of voters ages 18 to 24 will "definitely" vote in today's midterm elections.
If the prediction holds true, it would mean a record youth turnout for a midterm election, eclipsing the 26.6-percent turnout in 1982.
And the projected rise could mark a trend - it comes on the heels of a high voter turnout among young people in the 2004 presidential election.
"Voters are habit-forming," said Harvard senior Krister Anderson, who served as the survey's student co-chairman. "Once college students get into the habit of going to the polling place and filling out the absentee ballots, it's going to be a lot easier for them to do it the second time around."
Though the poll result seems promising, Mark Lopez,
director of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement Research, said any survey must be taken with a grain of salt. CIRCLE is an organization run by the University of Maryland.
"I think it's nothing more than a prediction," Lopez said. "To have any sort of precise estimate is really hard because so many things can happen to make sure someone does not show up at the polls."
"What people say they're going to do and what they do do are two different things," added Penn Political Science professor Henry Teune.
Still, Lopez said the poll does corroborate a feeling of increasing interest and disapproval with government among youth voters.
"I think there is a general dissatisfaction, particularly among young people, of how efficient the federal government is," he said.
The poll's prediction, if true, may spell trouble for Republican candidates, since 52 percent of the "likely" voters who participated in the survey said they prefer Democratic control of Congress, as opposed to only 29 percent for the GOP.
Participants in the poll also gave President George Bush an average grade of C-minus on seven key issues: terrorism, education, the environment, jobs and the economy, health care, illegal immigration and the war in Iraq. Bush earned his worst grade on the war in Iraq, with a D-plus.
Penn Democrats spokeswoman Connie Meng said she was not surprised that the poll results were so critical of the Republican administration.
"I think that youth voters, especially [at Penn], are aware that this is a very consequential election and that the decisions we make now are going to have a great impact on our future," she said. "People are ready to cast their votes in favor of change."
The youth demographic has historically favored Democrats, though Penn College Republicans Chairman Michael Shiely said his party has been working to convert that voting bloc.
Even so, he said, Republicans believe they will have enough support among other demographics to offset any loss among young voters.
"I still think we're going to have a high turnout overall for Republican candidates," Shiely said. "Youth vote isn't the only vote."
Regardless of the effect on this year's election, Lopez said a continuing trend of more young voters will force politicians to focus on a constituency that is often forgotten.
"Government officials will have to eventually address their concerns," he said.
This year's poll surveyed both college students and non-students for the first time. It had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
