Barring an intervention from the United States Supreme Court, Ralph Nader will not be listed as a presidential candidate on the ballot on Election Day.
Even so, aides say the independent consumer advocate will still be a force in the election, both in the state and around the country.
However, their optimism is not reflected in the support of Penn students. The Daily Pennsylvanian election survey showed Nader garnering votes from less than one percent of undergraduates who said they are planning to vote, despite the fact that the campaign staff said its strongest base is among college students.
Nader was booted from the Pennsylvania presidential ballot last week when Commonwealth Court President Judge James Gardner Colins ruled that many of the petition signatures required to get on the ballot in Pennsylvania were invalid.
Nader campaign Eastern Pennsylvania Coordinator Dan Martino believes that Nader may make it on the ballot in time for the Nov. 2 election.
"Yeah, there is a chance," he said, pointing to the pending case in the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has already declined to hear Nader's appeal, and Democratic political analyst Larry Ceisler said that Nader stands no chance of making it on the Pennsylvania ticket.
He noted that many of Nader's petition circulators were paid workers, something he said that is always "asking for trouble."
Martino, however, believes that the court removed a number of valid names from the petition. He estimated that 14,000 to 19,000 valid signatures -- of the necessary 25,697 -- were stricken because of confusion over people with common last names and recent changes of address.
Martino did admit, however, that he believed about 3 percent of the signatures were forged -- including names like Mickey Mouse and Fred Flintstone -- but he dismissed it as foul play.
"We had some people trying to sabotage our campaign," he said.
It is the campaign's goal to garner 5 percent of the national popular vote, thus enabling Nader to receive federal funding in the next presidential election.
Martino is optimistic about the candidate's chances, citing the absence of Pat Buchanan -- another perennial Independent -- from this year's election as a big advantage.
"There is no real point of voting for Kerry or Bush," he said. "Unless you're a multimillionaire CEO, they won't represent you."
Ceisler, however, said that Nader "is not going to do well. He's not going to get 5 percent in any state. ... I expect him to have no effect."
Martino cited college students as Nader's "biggest demographic," adding that students are less likely than the rest of the electorate to get their news from "the corporate-controlled media."
Ceisler and Martino did agree, however, on the issue of Nader "taking" votes from Democratic candidate John Kerry, with both believing that the argument is not compelling.
"A vote for Ralph Nader is actually a vote for Ralph Nader," Ceisler said. "People know what the stakes are."
"If the Kerry people, after all this, can't get the Nader vote, it can't be gotten."
Martino added, "If the Democrats want more votes, they should run better candidates."
"There needs to be more choices for president," he said. "If you're voting for the lesser of two evils, you're still voting for an evil."
