Talk: Effects of Y2K unknown

While organizations throughout the world -- including the University -- are preparing extensively for a possible computer disaster that may arise with the dawning of a new millennium, some experts are trying to predict precisely what the effects of the year 2000 will be. Monday night, more than 50 students, professionals and area residents crowded into the White Dog Cafe to enjoy a dinner followed by strategic planner John Peterson's presentation entitled "The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation." "There ain't anything else in the world like this," said Peterson, the president and founder of The Arlington Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based research think tank, and one of 200 "futurists" employed by the U.S. government. Explaining the potential social effects of the the Year 2000 bug -- commonly known as Y2K -- Peterson compared the possible upcoming tragedy to a hurricane. "We know it's coming but its impossible to predict," he said. According to Peterson, Y2K will definitely have technological and social implications and citizens can only hope the extent of destruction will be bearable. Effects could range from malfunctions of watches, alarm clocks and computers to the complete downfall of power plants, the banking industry and government agencies. At the crux of the problem is an antiquated computer programming technique. Many of the older computers recognize only two-digit codes for years. So while "99" indicates the year 1999, when the clock strikes midnight this New Year's Eve, computer chaos could erupt. The transition to "00" could be read as the year 1900, instead of 2000. For some this may not be so bad, Peterson explained. Adding humor to the discussion, Peterson said that the Internal Revenue Service will suffer a similar handicap, leading to the disappearance of taxes. More realistically, though, society as a whole will experience at least some degree of difficulty in coping with the problem. At the heart of the Y2K dilemma are technological decisions made throughout the 1960s. "We blame it on Nixon," said area resident Randi Shayne, referring to the decision to use only two digits. Regardless of the who made the decision, Peterson said that the computer errors are a "big, big problem." While the errors are relatively simple to correct, the complete reprogramming of software is time-consuming and lends itself to even more error. "It will take 75,000 person-years to correct the problem," Peterson said. And even then, all effects of Y2K wouldn't necessarily be alleviated. Even more significant is the "problem in connections." Technological links that unite the world will enhance the effects of Y2K, resulting in catastrophe for nations around the globe. For example, he said, countries might no longer be able to obtain crucial goods from current trading partners. While acknowledging that many countries which failed to prepare for Y2K are headed for disaster, Peterson said, "The good news is the U.S. is the leader" in its preparation. But in response to the belief that the U.S. is invincible to the effects of Y2K, Shayne said, "Get rid of the attitude. It will happen in the U.S."