Election-day apathy may hurt Dems.

Voter turnout for the mid-term elections is expected to be very low, possibly hurting Democrats. Americans -- perhaps as few as a quarter of registered voters nationwide -- go to the polls today to choose a midterm slate of congressional, state-wide and local candidates. Nationwide voter apathy -- indifference to a capital that to many seems removed from everyday life and moral standards -- is likely to decide today's election, rather than any particular substantive issue. The elections were once thought likely to produce a Republican landslide as voters turned out to rebuke President Clinton for his handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. But the various races are now occasioning little more than a national yawn. Voters have reacted with outrage at the political establishment rather than individual politicians, and experts predict the vast majority will simply choose not to participate in the elections today. A low turnout will likely hurt Democratic candidates: Republican voters come out more consistently on election day. "Our voters are more religious about voting," said Rep. John Linder (R-Ga.), the chairperson of the National Republican Congressional Committee, in yesterday's New York Times. That reality has Democratic leaders turning up the heat on voters in the hopes of scaring them into the voting booths. "When you don't vote, you let another church explode? you let the Republicans continue to cut school lunches and Head Start," reads one ad currently being broadcast by the Missouri Democratic Party. But Democrats face an uphill struggle independent of voter turnout problems. The party holding the White House usually loses ground in the off-year congressional elections, a historical effect that is particularly pronounced during a second presidential term. Earlier this year, Democrats appeared likely to lose significant ground, perhaps even ceding a filibuster-proof 60 seats to Senate Republicans. But a late backlash against Republican candidates -- attributed by many to diminishing interest in the Lewinsky scandal -- has changed the prognosis. Democrats still appear likely to lose seats in both houses, but Republicans appear unlikely to make significant gains. Crucially, the 60 votes Republicans covet in the Senate now appear out of reach. A total of 34 Senate seats -- senators are elected for six-year terms staggered so that only a third come up for reelection every two years -- are being contested today. Of those, 18 are currently held by Democrats, including three seats left by retiring incumbents. Two of the 16 contested Republican seats were left by retirements. Analysts believe five of the races -- in New York, North Carolina, Kentucky, Nevada and Wisconsin -- are still too close to call, but two of those seats are held by Republicans. And so, Republican pollsters are now predicting a pick-up of no more than one to three seats. Such predictions traditionally underestimate party chances in hopes of creating the impression of election day strength. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter and Gov. Tom Ridge, both Republicans, will likely breeze to victory over a pair of Democratic state representatives, Bill Lloyd and Ivan Itkin. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, though the results have less relevance to the Clinton scandal. Still, any increase in the Republican majority might doom President Clinton to lame-duck status for his remaining two years in office. Conventional wisdom currently points to a Republican gain of fewer than a dozen seats.