Election '98: Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Race

Gov. Ridge likely headed for landslide Gov. Ridge likely headed for landslidePolls show the GOP incumbent holding a 40-point lead. Gov. Tom Ridge leads his nearest challenger, Democratic State Rep. Ivan Itkin, by 39 points in a recent poll, holding 56 percent of the voters' support to Itkin's 17. The numbers make it a virtual certainty that the popular incumbent -- a 53-year-old Republican from Erie -- and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Mark Schweiker, will be returned to office in landslide fashion next Tuesday. Constitutional Party candidate Peg Luksik trails both men with 9 percent and 18 percent of voters were undecided in the September 27 Keystone Poll conducted by the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University. Among that poll's findings: Ridge leads Itkin among Democratic voters. He leads in every region of the state. Ridge leads even in traditionally Democratic Philadelphia and Itkin's hometown of Pittsburgh. "The basic problem is not Ivan Itkin," said Michael Young, a politics professor and director of the Center for Survey Research at Pennsylvania State University's Harrisburg campus. "It's that the the Democratic party has lost its step in Pennsylvania." But the combination of a strong economy and Pennsylvania's lowest level of unemployment this decade -- 4.8 percent in the most recent statistics -- also means that incumbents like Ridge are sitting pretty in-state and nationwide. The governor hasn't hurt his own chances, either. "[Ridge] is a very effective politician who has had a good four years," Young said. The governor's job-approval rating currently sits at 63 percent, according to the same poll. Itkin, 62, the minority whip in the state House of Representatives, has attempted to convince Pennsylvania voters that they are not getting their fair share of the economic bounty. In a September speech, Itkin accused Ridge of "[selling] out our working families, their parents and children by charting an economic policy that would enrich no one but the mega-corporations, their CEOs and Tom Ridge's campaign fund." But the issues have largely been irrelevant in this race because Itkin has been unable to reach voters. Hampered by a shortage of cash, Itkin has watched while Ridge flooded the airwaves with ads touting his performance over the last four years. As a result, 80 percent of voters in a recent poll said they didn't know enough about Itkin. Only 6 percent of voters said the same of Ridge. And things are not likely to improve in the short time before next week's vote. A September 19 campaign finance disclosure revealed that Ridge had $2.75 million in the bank. Itkin had a mere $26,000, or about 1 percent of Ridge's resources. Even Luksik, a third-party candidate unlikely to pull in more of the vote than Itkin, has outspent him thus far. Luksik took 13 percent of the vote in 1994 on an anti-abortion platform, and has posted similar numbers in the polls this year while focusing on similar issues. Both Ridge and Itkin are pro-choice, though Ridge favors parental consent for minors and opposes government-funded abortions except in cases of rape and incest or when the mother's life is in danger. Hidden from most voters are the substantive differences between Ridge and Itkin. Chief among them is their divergent views the role of the state in funding local schools. Currently, Pennsylvania contributes minimally to individual school districts, which draw most of their funding from property assessments. Ridge supports the present system and has refused to settle a lawsuit brought by Philadelphia and other school districts alleging that the current system is biased against poor neighborhoods. Itkin charges that such areas are unfairly burdened with a smaller budget for their schools. Itkin has called for a five-year, 50 percent cut in local property taxes. But Itkin's lack of name recognition has cost him dearly. "People don't vote for people they don't know," said Terry Madonna, who directs the Keystone Poll. Indeed, 1998 seemed an inauspicious year for Pennsylvania Democrats from the start. Several well-known Democrats -- including Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell and state Auditor Robert Casey Jr. -- opted not to run against the popular, well-funded governor. But Young says this election has the potential to be far worse than Democrats realized. "[The Democrats] have a 40 percent base vote," Young said. "That means if you put Mickey Mouse on the [Democratic] ballot, he gets 40 percent. If Itkin drops below 35 percent, it's just a disaster for the party."