COLUMN: When the world becomes chaos

From Lindsay Faber's, "From Russia with Love," Fall '98 From Lindsay Faber's, "From Russia with Love," Fall '98For the first time in ten years, Russian Communists are celebrating. In a politically crippling concession to the Communists, Russian President Boris Yeltsin dropped Viktor Chernomyrdin as his nominee for prime minister last Thursday, and instead selected Yevgeny Primakov as the compromise which ended the 19-day stalemate between the Kremlim and the parliament. The Communist-dominated Duma quickly approved the nomination of Primakov, tilting the balance of power in their favor. Score one for the Communists. But while Primakov has earned Russia's respect, he must immediately face the country's paralyzing economic crisis, and the country will judge him by the way he handles it in the coming few weeks. The economy is perhaps a foreign subject to this geo-politician. With the ruble unpredictably plummeting and rising overnight, the commercial banking system in collapse, and the store shelves lacking bread and sugar, Primakov has a lot of work to do. And the Russians are depending on him. A commercial bank officer, who would only call herself Lyudmila, said the Russians have lost all confidence in their government officials. "The mood here is very dramatic," she said. "We are at risk of revolution because some people have not received their salaries in over six months." And Irina Petrova, a professor at a Russian state university, described the country's current state as "absolutely chaotic." "I am buying whatever I can, but the store shelves are becoming empty," Petrova said. "We thought the time had passed when we needed to turn our homes into storage houses," she added. Unfortunately, she was wrong. Russians everywhere are stocking up on the bare essentials, fearing they may soon become unavailable. Old Russian women walk around the city clutching sacks of potatoes, condensed milk powder, Tide, and bags of butter, sugar and flour. My Russian host family has turned their apartment into a small warehouse of everyday goods. We have around 10 times the amount of food we actually use, but we are saving everything just in case. When faced with these tired Russians who must grapple each day for some order in their frenetic worlds, Primakov began immediately to assemble his economic team. His selections, however, are very disturbing, and they may end up becoming politically volatile. Primakov chose Yury Maslyukov -- a Duma deputy from the Communist Party -- as his first deputy prime minster for economic policy, his right-hand man. Maslyukov served much of his career in the Soviet industrial complex, rising in 1988 to head Gosplan, the government agency which planned the Soviet economy. And to head Russia's Central Bank, Primakov tapped Viktor Geraschenko, the man behind the Gorbachev-era currency reform which cost many Russian citizens their entire savings. Geraschenko is the man to blame for the hyperinflation of the early 1990s, when he decided to pay off state debts by printing more rubles. And sadly enough, he has devised the same exact plan for the economic crisis of 1998: to print his way out of it. So what does the average Russian think about the new economic troika standing at the nation's helm? Many are elated because the country has avoided a potential political revolution. They think that at least now there is a viable government which can concentrate on reforming the insolvent banks and stacking the empty shelves. "Well, what we have now is more than we had last week," said a local vendor who would only call himself Andrei. But other Russians fear the return to Gorbachev-esque politics, which hardly make way for economic liberty. They are frightened that the government might again take away their control over their bank accounts, and eventually grab hold of their personal freedoms, too. "In 1991, the government wouldn't let me access my hard-earned money -- they restricted my withdrawals, but they had no right to tell me what I could do with my money," Petrova said, banging her fist on the table. "After that year, I withdrew all of my money from the bank and decided that I will never again trust my government," she added. And students are scared. They see their parents struggling to stay afloat, and they worry for the future of their fallen nation. Russia's educated students together represent the country's hope, since they are more likely to be drawn to democracy, the only style of government they really know. Students hope only for the continued freedoms they have enjoyed thus far. But they worry because their parents worry. Volodya Volkov, a 20-year old Russian student, said people have become crazy in their attempts to buy everything off the shelves at once. He said his mother must work harder now and that she hardly gets paid. "There is something in the air that feels like 1991 -- there is no stability at all and nobody knows what life will be like next," Volkov said. And as for the American students studying here now, all we can do is worry. We see the empty shelves in the grocery stores, the long lines for toilet paper and sugar, and the musicians who play in the metro stations trying desperately to earn some rubles in their violin cases, which lay open on the floor. Everyday we face dirty looks from hard-working Russians who resent the dollars that rest idly in our pockets and the democracy that we will eventually go home to. More and more, I find myself giving money to everyone who begs me for it. I cannot resist the little 6-year-old girls who sit on the streets and hold up signs reading, "Please, help me." All I want to do is help. But like the rest of America, I do not know how. Primakov's choice of Maslyukov and Geraschenko clearly point to a government which would mirror Soviet-style handling of the economy. Communist leaders and their left-wing friends are already getting excited. They have hoping to impose index pensions against inflation, price controls and continued government support for agriculture and industry. Primakov has already said he would like the state to interfere more in economic processes, an idea which remains dear to Soviet hearts. Could Russia's economy use a little regulation? Perhaps. But is there such thing as "a little regulation?" Russians have heard those words before. "I am used to the rulers saying one thing and doing something completely different," Petrova said. "These could be empty promises." Still, the Russians have no choice right now but to hope for a resolution of their dual crises. "Maybe this cabinet is taking such a huge step backward right now so they can soon make small steps forward, because we can't move forward too quickly," Petrova said. "But if I am wrong, then I don't know why all of this is happening to us again." In 1991, the world was euphoric as it witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rebirth of a new and democratic Russia. But now, seven years later, all that's left of that experiment is a presidency, a parliament and a central bank, all of which are separate institutions here. The one commonality they share is that they have garnered virtually no trust from the people. Is this the end of the road for the Russian people? I don't think so. The road from dictatorship to democracy cannot be without obstacles. The sorts of problems which plague this country are not going to take days or even months to resolve. Russia is a large country, still trying to emerge from 75 years of communism at the helm. And now, the dual possibility of the death of Russian democracy, coupled with the revival of a union of Soviets, is simply overwhelming.