COLUMN: The final countdown for Netanyahu

From Seth Lasser's, "For Mass Consumption," Fall '97 From Seth Lasser's, "For Mass Consumption," Fall '97It appears the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done it again. Earlier this week the Israeli cabinet gave its approval to the latest Netanyahu plan to take the next step in the so-called peace process. This stage entails a withdrawal from the uninhabited areas that comprise some 80 percent of the West Bank, Area C in Oslo parlance. The latest step in the peace-process is that the Prime Minister and his cabinet have agreed to the principle of ceding more land -- a principle clearly outlined in the Oslo Accords signed four years ago. It is unclear whether Netanyahu is aware that he is left, as the fable goes, as the emperor without clothes. The New York Times reported yesterday that Bibi sent envoys abroad and called Yasir Arafat to formally spread the news of this latest breakthrough. To Arafat's credit, he refused to comment on the situation. We can only imagine what his honest response would have been. The decision to agree with the long-standing agreement was not made hastily -- fitting political stereotypes about politics, the matter was deferred to a committee. Netanyahu and three ministers will decide what form this withdrawal will take. Not surprisingly, different members of this committee have already drawn up their own maps to represent Netanyahu's vague posturing on paper. Hard-line infrastructure Ariel Sharon, whose legendary girth and ideological notoriety have made him the butt of Israeli jokes for years, announced a proposal certain to be ignored by the Palestinians and the rest of the world. The isolation of Palestinian-ruled areas from one another -- their "bantuization," if you will, is not eliminated but enhanced. Sharon's plan would increase the number and size of Palestinian islands but delineate certain areas as 'crucial' to Israel's security. Assumedly, these areas would become part of Israel after a final settlement is reached. Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai devised an alternate map, a more realistic proposal and one reportedly agreed upon by Israel's military leaders. Under Mordechai's plan three large stretches of Palestinian territory would come into being in the West Bank, centered around the three large towns of Jenin, Nablus and Hebron. In some ways the two plans appear very similar. Neither extends to the Palestinian leadership a piece of territory that looks like a state. Palestinian control remains diffused, insulated detached -- in order that the Israeli military remain the ultimate authority in the West Bank. What is notable about the Mordechai plan is some Israeli settlements would be surrounded by Palestinian-ruled territory. Mordechai has yet to elucidate exactly how they would be governed -- in all likelihood, the settlers will continue to answer to the Israeli military government in place today. Yet the move would set an amazingly important precedent -- for the first time, a Likud minister, albeit a very moderate one, has suggested some settlements may not be retained in Israel proper when the final settlement is reached. As with many previous Netanyahu maneuvers, the larger question is whether he is actually willing to commit to the next step in the process. Perhaps Netanyahu purposely makes proposals that are so brazenly uncompromising in hopes of stalling the engine even further. To truly answer this question is to delve deeper into Israel's internal political dynamic and his own psychology than there is space. It seems hard to imagine anyone expects the Sharon plan to be taken seriously by Israel's erstwhile negotiating partners. Obviously Israel has an interest to hold on to as much land as possible before the final status talks begin, in order to hold the maximal amount of leverage in conducting the talks. It makes sense for the Israelis to try to feel out the limits of their opponents -- this is, after all, the very nature of bargaining. However, the corollary to this is the Palestinians are also striving to get as much land -- that is, as much of a state -- as they can at this particular juncture. Their response to a Sharon-type plan of continuing the total isolation of every Palestinian enclave will likely be cold. Those Palestinians that reject the Oslo Accords on principle are likely to respond violently. Today's Israeli press reported that the four-man committee is split over which plan to propose. At this moment, the speculation is that Netanyahu is leaning towards the Sharon plan. The willingness of the Israeli government to deal fairly with the Palestinians is being tested at this juncture. Putting forth a proposal that the Palestinians will rightly refuse to consider will be entirely counterproductive. Unfortunately, that may just be the point.