The question for Yale is: How long until Mike McLeod's numbers matter? How long can the running back's production drop like subprime mortgage values before it is impossible to deny that something is off?
Coach Jack Seidlecki and McLeod himself have said that he is healthy, and pointed out the obvious - McLeod is leading the Ivy League in rushing, at 88.7 yards per game.
The rub is that McLeod has needed 24 more carries - a game's worth - than anyone else in order to get there. His yards per carry (3.3) would not be in the league's top ten. Already this year, one of the nation's best tailbacks has been held under 100 yards twice by unspectacular foes.
So what does that mean? Is Yale, once considered with Harvard as one of the league's best teams, even more vulnerable than its surprising loss to Cornell two weeks ago would indicate? Or is it simply a result of defenses loaded to stop him or a subpar offensive line?
Whatever the reason is, tomorrow's game against Dartmouth will go a long way toward clearing the air. McLeod will face a porous rush defense that Penn's No. 2 tailback slashed for 129 yards.
Dartmouth will simply be looking for signs of life. To put a finer point on it, here is a (partial) list of league statistics in which Dartmouth ranks dead last: scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, total defense, rushing offense, rushing defense, passing efficiency, sacks allowed, opponents' first downs, red zone offense and red zone defense.
If that doesn't get McLeod going, nothing will.
Brown (2-1, 1-0 Ivy) at Holy Cross (1-3)
Westward ho!
Brown heads to Worcester, Mass., tomorrow to take on Holy Cross, which is playing its third Ivy opponent of the season.
Anyone who ends up watching should be thoroughly entertained. Both teams feature pass-happy offenses, albeit one is much more successful than the other.
Crusaders quarterback Dominic Randolph ranks first in the Football Championship Subdivision in completions and is also top-10 in points responsible for and total offense.
The Bears' Michael Dougherty averages 39 pass attempts per game but has had considerably less success than his Holy Cross counterpart. Dougherty has thrown just three touchdowns and is averaging 225.7 passing yards per game.
Cornell (3-0, 1-0 Ivy) at Harvard (2-1, 0-1)
The Big Red are doing well in the win-loss column, but their three victories have come by a combined five points. That said, they've certainly played well statistically, as the No. 2 Ivy team in both total offense and total defense.
They've done that by employing a balanced offense and by shutting down their opposition's running game. However, the Big Red's passing defense ranks sixth in the Ivy League - just a few yards above winless Columbia.
Fortunately for the Crimson - and unfortunately for Cornell - their offense is predicated on a prolific and dangerous passing game, thanks to signal-caller Chris Pizzotti.
Their passing offense averages 50 more yards per game than the next closest team (coincidentally, Cornell).
Lafayette (3-1) at
Columbia (0-3, 0-1)
It's been a trying season for Columbia coach Norries Wilson. He's seen his Lions - third in the Ivy League in scoring offense - drop three games, none by more than a touchdown.
Eventually, one would think his luck would turn . but these are the Columbia Lions.
While the other three games all seemed winnable - home against Fordham and Princeton, at Towson - tomorrow's home game against Lafayette, which is two weeks removed from a solid win over Penn, appears to be more of a test.
The Leopards are by no means an insurmountable obstacle; they were shown up, 27-13 at home against Harvard last week. But they handily dispatched Marist and Georgetown by a combined score of 52-12. In other words, they get the job done against bad teams - which is what Columbia has proven itself to be.
Princeton (2-1, 1-0) at
Colgate (3-2)
Colgate seems to have its way with the Ivy League.
The Raiders, who boast the Football Championship Subdivision's leading rusher, are 29-8 against the Ancient Eight during coach Dick Biddle's tenure, including a 34-20 win over Dartmouth three weeks ago.
Of course, Princeton's poses a tad more of a challenge than the Big Green, who have been outscored, 99-36, in their three losses.
The Tigers are a far more respectable 2-1, although their 20.3 points per game and 22.7 allowed hardly inspire fear. Their rushing defense - averaging 138.7 yards per game allowed - will have to come up big to stop Jordan Scott, who fresh off an FCS rushing crown is averaging an incredible 203.5 yards and 13.5 points.
Colgate has taken five of the past seven meetings, but the last time out, Princeton held on in overtime, 27-26, to extend its all-time series lead to 22-6-1.
