So apparently Philadelphia has been bludgeoned with political ads over the past couple months -- unbeknownst to me, since my television at Penn clicks on almost solely for The OC and the Yankees (or at least the two post-season rounds they played). I really can't say I'm familiar with Ashley and her "story" in Lebanon, Ohio, or poor little Timmy (as I'll call him) who needs his flu shot this year but can't get it, or President Bush, his silhouette aglow in red, appearing to have emerged from the seventh layer of hell in a Kerry spot trying to dissuade voters or persuade voters or whatever it is the campaign is trying to do right now. Even I have lost track at this point, and it probably won't matter in the end, anyway.
And the polls -- yet another inescapable stigma of the election season, a constant reminder that nobody cares about the candidates or the issues, just the horse race and who pulls a nose ahead. The polls at this time look pretty good for Bush: www.realclearpolitics.com shows him ahead in five of seven major polls and tied in one. But they, too, likely won't matter; polls reflect what the people are thinking, but they don't reflect the sources of votes come Nov. 2.
In a more perfect world, negative advertising would have a more tangible impact in deciding an election, and horse race polls that portray a candidate's momentum could predict the final result. I say this because, as cynical as it sounds, it is possible that this election will not be decided on the above factors, but on voter fraud in states all around the country, wreaking maximum havoc on our democratic system and silencing those who cast their votes the lawful way.
There's fraud, there's intimidation, there's disenfranchisement -- and all happen seemingly everywhere. Needless to say, this is a big problem, and as much as we've heard horror stories from the 2000 election and think we're removed from the mess, we now find ourselves on the brink of a fresh batch of scams. Nothing says "fresh start" like a renewed feeling of malaise.
It would be na*ve to think that such scandal could never erupt in a pristine place like dear old Pennsylvania. Then I remember that I live in Philadelphia, and my assumption is reaffirmed. As George Will pointed out earlier in the week, citing one of many examples of fraud in the United States, Philadelphia's population has declined 13 percent since 1995 but has seen a 24 percent increase in registered voters. I have a hard time believing that each name and address is authentic, and that most, if not all, of these individuals are not dead.
Philadelphia isn't the only example of this kind of fraud. Ohio is facing similar issues in its registration figures. Will states, "The U.S. Census Bureau's 2003 estimate is that in Franklin County -- Columbus -- there are approximately 815,000 people 18 or over. But 845,000 are now registered."
In yet another egregious example, Phyllis Schlafly mentioned a New York Daily News investigation that revealed a whopping 46,000 people registered to vote in both New York and Florida; of those 46,000, 68 percent are Democrats and 12 percent are Republicans, and between 400 and 1,000 registered voters cast two votes in at least one election. Schlafly writes, "That's illegal, of course, and punishable by up to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine, but nobody checks registration rolls across state lines and these election frauds go unpunished." When you consider that President Bush won Florida by a slim 537 votes, looking at dimpled chads, pregnant chads or intent of the voter in recount contests, such illegal voting practices hold enormous potential for damage this time around, polls be damned.
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida. ... Notice a trend? Do you get the idea that maybe this election won't be decided by swing voters in the swing states, but by renegade fraudulent votes that can neither be prevented beforehand nor detected until too late?
Lest we forget, the shady methods can be traced directly to the parties. The Kerry campaign with the Democratic National Committee issued a 66-page brief highlighting its plan for D-Day, er, Election Day: to cry voter intimidation even if it doesn't exist. The memo reportedly said, "If no signs of intimidation techniques have emerged yet, launch a 'pre-emptive strike.'" Sen. John Edwards appeared in Florida last week talking about the scary Republicans and their efforts to suppress votes. What a coincidence.
Alas, in politics, one must understand that usually neither side is guilt-free; the Republicans have some blemishes on their record suggesting shady voting tactics, as well. Like Jonah Goldberg of National Review writes, they are "hardly pure on such matters." He added, "Admittedly, in 2000, Florida Republicans did over-purge the rolls of felons. Yet during the same election, Democrats kept polling places in Missouri open late in Democratic precincts."
"Undeniably," he writes, "both parties have played fast and loose."
It's a shame that the rightful voters in this country will probably not be the determining factor in who wins the White House next week. As psyched up and motivated as many people are to oust President Bush or put a lid on John Kerry, all their outreach efforts, the countless polls and the expensive media slots may in the end prove fruitless.
Michelle Dubert is a College sophomore from Closter, N.J. Department of Strategery appears on Thursdays.
