Sub Stockman: Leave me alone, Harvard fan - Penn's gonna win

So, I was out Saturday night after Homecoming and, right when the lights came on, I got into a discussion with this guy at the bar who had some problems with our coverage of the Ivy League football race.

"You aren't giving Harvard enough credit," the guy said. "Do you know how good they are, how many guys they've got back? Do you know how close the game was last year?"

Turns out that the guy, a Penn student, is best friends with one of the Harvard captains.

Normally I'd dismiss a late-night tirade like this out of hand, but there seemed to be something like clairvoyance in his wild-eyed parting shot, "We'll see next Saturday, won't we?"

Maybe it was the booze, but my stomach turned, and I felt -- just for a moment and just a little -- like Caesar when the soothsayer gave him the "Ides of March" business.

I'm not saying I think Penn won't win. What I am saying is that Harvard is, after all, a damn good team, and that maybe Penn fans are taking the Crimson too lightly.

In the interest of raising some healthy concern, lets take a look at tomorrow's relevant matchups.

Penn's Offense vs. Harvard's Defense:

The Quakers are third in the Ancient Eight in total and scoring offense, averaging 402 yards and 29 points a game.

Harvard is third and second in total and scoring defense, respectively. The Crimson are giving up an average of 357 yards and 20 points a game.

The Crimson give up an average of 119 yards rushing a game. The Quakers average 178 yards on the ground, while featuring, of course, senior running back Kris Ryan, who gets around 140 of those yards himself.

Penn has an able quarterback in last season's Ivy League Player of the Year, Gavin Hoffman, but is not throwing as much this season, which is why the Quakers are sixth in the league in passing, averaging 224 yards a game. The Crimson return three starters in the secondary.

Unless the Quakers offense really opens up on the Crimson -- something they haven't been able to do to anyone this year -- the game will come down to...

Harvard's Offense vs. Penn's Defense:

If you get right down to it, this matchup -- when Harvard has the ball -- is the real clash of the titans.

The Quakers are leading the nation in scoring defense, holding opponents to a measly 8.7 points a game. The Crimson are second in the Ivies in scoring, averaging 32.9 points a game, just behind Brown.

Harvard has scored no fewer than four touchdowns per contest this season. Penn has given up just eight touchdowns all year.

The Crimson average 440 yards a game, while the Quakers give up just 256.

The "irresistible force versus the immovable object" and other cliches aside, this should be an incredible matchup.

Yes, Harvard does return a lot of players -- 16, almost as many as Penn. Yes, Harvard does have a prolific offense and a solid defense.

But Quakers fans can and should take solace in one thing -- Brown has a scary-good offense, too. The Bears lead the Crimson in almost every statistical category, and the Quakers already beat Brown, 27-14, in Providence, R.I.

The Red and Blue's defense should be too much for the Crimson, but knock on wood just the same.

And if you're a Quakers fan, get on your knees and pray to all things holy that the game doesn't come down to...

Penn's field-goal kicking vs. Harvard's field-goal kicking:

The Quakers have made only one-third of their field goal attempts this year, while the Crimson have made half of theirs.

It's true that neither team attempts too many, but the Crimson have apparently assigned Robbie Wright -- whose 33-yard field goal attempt went wide last year, giving the Quakers a one-point win -- a permanent place on the bench.

Penn 28, Harvard 21.

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