GOP hopes to buck the odds in governor's race

The state Republican party is confident that it will keep control of Pennsylvania when the 2002 gubernatorial election rolls around, despite strong competition from the Democrats. The GOP is also battling the curse of alternating Republicans and Democrats in the state's top post. For 30 years, the party holding the state's top job has flip-flopped after eight years, when term limits take effect. By the time of the next election, popular Republican Gov. Tom Ridge will be forced to step down. "Streaks are meant to be broken," said Kent Gates, campaign manager for Attorney General Mike Fisher, thought to be the leading Republican contender for the governor's office. Fisher has not officially announced his candidacy yet, although Gates said that he will do so in "reasonably short order." Only state Treasurer Barbara Hafer has officially thrown her hat in the ring in the Republican primary. But many observers say the GOP is concerned about relying on these two choices. "They're really worried about him in terms of his leadership and charisma, about whether he can really beat a Democrat," Political Science Professor Henry Teune said of Fisher. "The governorship is life and death for the state party. The Republicans want to hold it." Other names that have been mentioned so far include state Sen. Jeffrey Piccola, Congressman Curt Weldon, former lieutenant governor William Scranton III and 1994 gubernatorial contender and 1999 Philadelphia mayoral candidate Sam Katz. However, so far all have said that 2002 will not be their year, except for Scranton, who could not be reached for comment. Weldon is supposedly eyeing an ambassadorship to Russia, and Katz has expressed little interest in the position so far. Piccola's name was also added to this list of non-committals last week, when he disbanded his exploratory committee. His spokesman said that he did not want to be an "obstacle to party unity." "Some of those close to the governor were making it real clear that they were lining up behind Fisher," said Jeff Haste, who managed Piccola's exploratory committee. Haste added that if there is an "open primary" -- meaning that Ridge will not endorse a candidate -- Piccola would consider rejoining the race. A candidate who is endorsed by his or her party has a much easier time fundraising and generating support, but top Republican fundraiser David Girard-diCarlo said Ridge seems to be in no hurry to issue an endorsement. "The governor is in a little bit of a delicate position because he's chairman of the Republican Governors Association and to a certain extent that might... urge him to endorse early, but by the same token, he also ran in a contested primary in 1992 and has a lot of respect for the primary process," said Girard-diCarlo, the chairman of President Bush's Pennsylvania finance operations. Fisher's team is confident that he is well-suited for the job, having worked as the state's top law enforcement officer since 1996, preceded by 22 years as a state representative. And they maintain Fisher is ready to take on the frontrunners on the Democratic side. "You contrast [Fisher's record] with Bob Casey Jr. who's been in state government for four years -- I don't think [Casey]'s qualified or ready for the governorship," Gates said. "Nor is Ed Rendell, whose only experience is serving as mayor of Philadelphia." Fisher, who has won both of his statewide elections for attorney general, was also a lead negotiator in the recent tobacco industry lawsuit filed by several states. Pennsylvania will receive an $11 billion settlement over 25 years. Hafer also believes she has the necessary background to run for governor, having served as state treasurer since 1997. This followed eight years as auditor general and a losing 1990 gubernatorial bid. Hafer gained recognition in 1990, when, as auditor general, she warned of an impending $1 billion budget deficit. Her warning, which later proved true, was disregarded at the time, and a huge tax increase resulted. If elected, both Fisher and Hafer would like continue to improve the state's economy, as well as focus on health care and education. "We want to build on the financial strengths that are already in place -- and I know the financial issues very well," Hafer said. The candidates' stances on abortion rights might also influence the primary race -- Hafer is pro-choice, while Fisher is pro-life. Generating name recognition for both Hafer and Fisher will be important in Philadelphia, as the two candidates hail from the western part of the state. "The Democratic candidate,ÿwhoever that is, will carry the city of Philadelphia," Nagle said. "But it's still worthwhile for a Republican to make inroads... than to write off the city."