Alums go behind the scenes with a political pulse-taker

Comparing last night's presidential debate to The Wizard of Oz, 1982 College graduate Ken Smukler, now the president of VoterLink -- a regional campaign management firm -- discussed presidential polling before a handful of alumnae at Houston Hall yesterday. "It's the Wizard of Oz debate," Smukler joked. "We'll see if Bush has a brain and if Gore has a heart." Joking aside, "Who Will Win: What do Current Polls Predict?" is the first of a three-part series of speeches themed "Election 2000." The series is sponsored by the Association of Alumnae, an organization of Penn's Alumni Society that promotes interest in areas of concern for women. "We try to have a theme for the speakers each year," said Janice Gian-Grasso, the organization's president and a graduate of the Nursing School. "Last year, it was OCelebrating Women at the Millennium;' this year it's OElection 2000.'" Smukler cited lack of money as the main reason politicians use polling to "figure out who you want to talk to, who you don't want to talk to and who you don't have to talk to." Typically, candidates have most of the voters figured out early on in the campaign, concentrating most of their resources on "educating" undecided voters. "All this money [spent on campaigns is] for 10 percent to 20 percent of the vote," said Smukler, whose firm polled for Gore in Iowa and New Hampshire during the Democratic primaries. Not surprisingly, the women asked him to predict who he thought would win in November. "I get paid by one of the candidates," he replied. "I'm the last person that you want to ask." He did admit, however, that Gore's current strong showing in the polls may not be as big as voters have been led to believe. "[He] got such a big bounce after the convention because previously he had been underperforming in his base," Smukler pointed out. That means that Gore had not targeted what Smukler calls his "high Democratic performance areas." Strong Democratic voters were not really mobilized until the convention. This also accounts for Gore's gains among female voters, since the Democratic party has a higher percentage of female voters, according to Smukler. Smukler also addressed questions about the importance of Pennsylvania in the presidential race, explaining that Pennsylvania's 23 Electoral College votes are now a "toss up between Bush and Gore." Overall, the members of the Association of Alumnae seemed pleased with the speech. "We're so glad he took the time to come speak to us," Vice President and Program Chairwoman Marion Taxin said. In the next speech of the series, which will take place on November 11, Communications Professor David Eisenhower -- grandson of former President Dwight -- will give an analysis of the election.