Iran war could cost up to $47 billion through April, Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts

United States operations in Iran have cost between $27-28 billion since strikes began in February, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The April 1 report details the cost of “Operation Epic Fury,” a campaign targeting Iran’s military infrastructure led by 1968 Wharton graduate and President Donald Trump’s administration since Feb. 28. If the campaign continues through the end of April, the model projects total costs over the two-month period could reach as high as $47 billion.

In the report, PWBM clarified that its estimation does not account for around $5 billion in indirect costs — and that it only considers “direct, unbudgeted federal military spending.” The review was based upon “official government data” and an “authoritative independent analysis.”

PWBM’s analysis is based upon four “phases” of the military operation. The project estimated that during the campaign’s first six days — from Feb. 28 to March 5 — the government spent an average of $2.1 billion each day. That number decreased significantly for the next two phases, with an approximate $601 million spent per day from March 6-23 and $500 million spent per day for the remainder of the month.

The model also predicted that the government would likely spend $350-650 million per day during the month of April.

“Beyond accounting gaps, long-term veterans’ care and disability benefits for the almost 300 U.S. service members already injured thus far will accumulate over several decades,” the report added.

The campaign against Iran has prompted various responses from members of the Penn community.

In a Feb. 28 Instagram post, Perry World House Executive Director Marie Harf, Faculty Director Michael Horowitz, and Penn Washington Director of Global Policy Programs Daniel Schneiderman discussed Operation Epic Fury.

“This is a war of choice that puts Americans and our friends in the region in danger,” Harf wrote in the post. “With little public debate, President Trump has taken the nation into a military conflict unlikely to produce an Iranian government that is more pro-U.S. or respectful of its people.”

On March 2, Penn advised students to defer travel and transit through the Middle East due to potential “travel disruption.” Penn Global has since extended the restrictions — with travel "prohibited" for undergraduates — and plans to reassess on April 15.

Both PWH and Penn’s Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law hosted panels on the topic last month, and Persian Students Association at Penn released a statement of support for the people in Iran.

PWBM has previously released reports on other Trump administration policies, such as tariffs and mass deportation plans. In March, the program compared two Senate proposals that would expand the income range where Americans owe no federal income tax.

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