Louis Capozzi | "Berning" the Democratic Party

Citizen Capozzi | How Bernie Sanders is paving the way for a progressive insurgency within the Democratic Party

By Louis Capozzi 04/06/16 10:39pm

A revolution is coming soon within the Democratic Party.

Bernie Sanders is calling for a “political revolution” with fiery rhetoric against the wealthy and Wall Street. On Tuesday, the fire spread to Wisconsin, where Sanders won a decisive 14th victory.

Exceeding any reasonable pundit’s expectations, Sanders has undoubtedly run a strong campaign. As they head for a showdown in New York, Sanders will probably defeat the deeply unpopular Clinton in most of the remaining states. But let’s make something clear.

Sanders has no chance and never has. The Democratic Party has rigged their process to hand the contest to Clinton, an otherwise weak candidate. This manipulation has occurred on several levels.

Mathematically, Clinton has a structural edge due to super delegates, which make up about 15 percent of the total delegate pool. These superdelegates overwhelmingly support Clinton, who has 473 compared to Sanders’ 32. At this rate, Sanders would have to win over 55 percent of the popular vote to compensate for Clinton’s advantage.

But the math wasn’t even supposed to matter. About a year ago, very few people outside of secluded Vermont had heard of Sanders. Clinton held an iron grip on the Party and was widely hailed as the Party’s inevitable nominee by the media. This Party-backed aura of inevitability chased away formidable candidates that could have actually challenged her, like Joe Biden.

When Sanders entered the race last April, he lagged far behind Clinton. While his revolutionary message inflamed an electorate disillusioned with America’s future, the Democratic Party grabbed the fire extinguisher. Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz only allowed four debates before the Iowa caucuses, scheduling them on weekends when viewership would be low. The Party wanted the fire doused by Super Tuesday.

After Sanders routed Clinton in New Hampshire, the Party rallied to her side in the South. Prominent black leaders overwhelmingly support Clinton, including John Lewis, who claimed he “never saw” Sanders involved in the Civil Rights Movement, despite contrary evidence. This attack on Sanders worked, as Clinton swept the southern states, winning around 85 percent of the black vote.

Now, despite winning seven of the last eight states, Sanders has no chance. If he won every remaining state by a 55-45 margin ­— this won’t happen — he would still lose the earned delegate race, with the Party superdelegates poised to pad the margin.

Yet, while Sanders’ revolution will be crushed, the Party bosses appear ready to placate his followers. Clinton, as she has done throughout her career, has shifted with the political winds to echo Sanders on minimum wage, free college and higher taxes on the wealthy.

State-level Democrats are also striking a more progressive tone. California and New York just implemented $15 per hour minimum wage laws. In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Joe Sestak — previously one of the more progressive members in Congress — is being outflanked by John Fetterman, who openly identifies with Sanders.

Historically, revolutions are good for ambitious leaders unafraid of dirty hands. But the winners of the coming revolution will not be outsiders like Sanders or Fetterman. They will be progressives like Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown, revolutionaries with insider credentials. The Party, desperate to ward off genuine outsiders like Sanders, is already empowering these figures in Congress. Within a decade, moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill will be marginalized within the Party.

Sanders has already shown that had Clinton been challenged by a well-connected progressive like Warren, she probably would have lost. Undoubtedly, ambitious progressives have taken notice.

Not convinced? Consider what’s currently happening to the Republican Party. As Trump threatens the Party’s power and financial interests, GOP officials suddenly have a mystifying affection for arch-conservative Ted Cruz, who has consequently become somewhat mainstream.

For ambitious progressives like Warren or Brown, the formula is straightforward: appeal to socioeconomic anxiety against the wealthy, promote protectionist policies against free trade and embrace an aggressive brand of identity politics. Simultaneously, the next revolution can avoid Sanders’ greatest weakness by finding a way to incorporate powerful black leaders into their movement. If Sanders had won even half of the black vote this year, he would have routed Clinton. The path is there, if there’s a Democrat ambitious enough to seize it.

Bernie Sanders is calling for a revolution in the Democratic Party. Though it won’t happen this year, it’s coming. The fire he started is spreading.

When it happens, we’ll all “feel the Bern.”

LOUIS CAPOZZI is a College senior from Mechanicsburg, Pa., studying classics and history. His email address is capozzil@sas.upenn.edu. “Citizen Capozzi” usually appears every other Thursday.

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