As general manager of the Oakland Athletics, Billy Beane designed a formula — which author Michael Lewis called Moneyball in his revolutionary 2003 baseball book — that allowed his small-market club to compete with the mighty Yankees and Red Sox of the world.
Moneyball attempts to make the subjective objective, to quantify the unquantifiable.
And beginning this season, coach Kyle Smith is bringing Moneyball to the Columbia basketball team.
The first-year head man has started the process of instilling his complex philosophy into a program with just one all-time Ivy League championship.
The transformation is “labor intensive,” to say the least. Smith and his assistants analyze tape of every single play of every single practice to compile statistics that fuel an “advanced statistical program.” There are 38 different statistics in all, designed to assign numerical value to the usually immeasurable details that decide the outcome of a basketball game.
What exactly are these statistics that contribute to this advanced program, you ask?
“If I tell you,” Smith deadpanned, “I’d have to kill you.”
It’s understandable that Smith, who will make his first trip with Columbia (14-10, 5-5 Ivy) to the Palestra tonight to face Penn (11-12, 5-4), wants to protect his secrets. They represent the product of an exhaustive 15-year evolution that spawned during his years as associate head coach at San Diego (1992-2000) and then Saint Mary’s College (2001-2009).
The latter, a little-known, 4,000-student West Coast Conference school, provided the perfect environment to put his brainchild to the test.
The results were profound: the Gaels won two games in 2000; last year, in Smith’s final season, they completed a stretch of 81 wins in three years and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen with an upset of No. 2 seed Villanova.
Like Beane once did with the nearby A’s, Smith — in his role as St. Mary’s recruiting coordinator — tapped into a “pool of talent that people weren’t using.” With a cast of characters that included international imports and junior college transfers, Gaels’ coaches uncovered hidden gems previously overlooked by most Division I schools.
Players that failed the “eye test” as awkward high schoolers were suddenly running a well-oiled machine.
There was Mickey McConnell, a 5-foot-11 point guard, a remarkably efficient shooter and a precise passer; Todd Golden, a 6-2 string bean whose best attribute, according to Smith, was his “really good brain;” and, of course, Omar Samhan, the pudgy post man who took college basketball by storm last March (21.3 points, 10.9 rebounds per game in 2009-10).
“[The statistical formula] really appeals to guys who have a really good feel for the game,” Smith said.
Whereas Beane discovered untapped value in the walk, Smith sees passing as the underrated skill he holds in highest esteem.
The coach labeled by Richmond’s Chris Mooney as “the smartest man in college basketball” surely has tricks up his sleeve when it comes to measuring the fine points of passing. But Smith only revealed that his system rewards “good skip passes, outlets and post feeds.”
He did, however, divulge a few of his other stat categories: block out percentage, hockey assists, rotation cover downs, blow bys (middle and baseline) and ball pressures — or “hustle stats,” as he called them.
To most hoops fans, this may sound like a foreign language. Not to Penn assistant coach Mike Martin.
“Every staff has their own [statistical] philosophy,” he said, adding that Columbia’s produces superb floor spacing that is difficult to guard.
With the Lions boasting the second-highest scoring offense, the second-best turnover margin and the top rebounding margin in the Ivy League, Smith is already seeing the fruits of his labor. Columbia equaled last year’s Ivy win total (five) last weekend and has improved overall from 11-17 to 14-10.
Smith maintains this turnaround will take longer than the others due to the lack of scholarships in the Ancient Eight. But, at the very least, he can offer his new players something Ivy Leaguers crave more than most: math.
“These guys will be quicker to buy in. The program will be easier to develop because the guys are smart,” Smith said. “I think they’ll appreciate the data.”
The Daily Pennsylvanian is an independent, student-run newspaper. Please consider making a donation to support the coverage that shapes the University. Your generosity ensures a future of strong journalism at Penn.
DonatePlease note All comments are eligible for publication in The Daily Pennsylvanian.