With the mayoral election less than two weeks away, many are wondering just how significant a role the candidates' races are playing --- and just how significant a problem this presents.
While the competition for the city's top post has been intense all along, earlier this fall, incumbent John Street, a black Democrat, was slightly trailing his opponent Sam Katz, a white Republican, in the polls.
However, early this month, news broke of an ongoing Federal Bureau of Investigation probe after a bug was found planted in Street's City Hall office. But with the election fast approaching, Street's chances of winning a second term don't seem to have weakened at all -- in fact, he has taken the lead in polls.
According to Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University, this is, in part, because -- amid suggestions that Street was targeted because of his race -- "the probe has made race a higher public dimension of the campaign."
Larry Ceisler, a public affairs consultant with the firm of Ceisler Jubelirer, added that "the probe has really crystallized the [racial] polarization" present in this election, because it prompted more black voters to join Street's camp.
According to a recent poll conducted by Temple University and CBS 3/KYW-3, one in four black voters said he or she is "more likely" to vote for Street because of the probe, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
Ceisler rationalized the rise in support for Street by pointing out that, "Street really engendered little or no passion in his electoral base of African Americans and staunch Democrats, and the probe and the bug have injected passion where there wasn't any before."
"Blacks are putting themselves in Street's place, and for the first time they can relate to him because they feel that the government is against them and that when they begin to achieve success the government tries to limit that," Ceisler said.
But Street's spokesman Mark Nevins said that local speculation about the reason for the probe has not been confined to race.
"Some perceive this to be an investigation with some political overtones," he said.
But whatever the motivation for the probe, the role of race in this year's election is no surprise, since it also factored heavily in the 1999 race, when Street and Katz first faced off, according to Madonna.
"Race was the defining issue four years ago, and it's the defining issue now," he said. In 1999, "race became, in a sense, the most critical component of the election... it was far more important than party. A lot of white Democrats voted for Katz, [so] race trumped party."
One explanation for this strong correlation between race and candidate choice is the notion of group identity, according to Penn Political Science Professor Jack Nagel.
"It's people preferring to vote for someone of their own group out of pride or perceived similarity," he said.
However, Nagel also pointed out the potential for votes based on racism.
"There is also race as direct conflict where one group will benefit and the other group will hurt," he said. "I think Street's records are not that bad that they would have led a lot of white Democrats to go to a Republican if [Street] were not black."
Ceisler added that "there are a lot of white voters in this city who just do not want to vote for an African American because they feel that their interests would be secondary."
"If Street was a white Democrat, he'd probably be doing better," he said.
Indeed, according to recent polls, blacks perceive Street's work during his term more favorably than whites do, which, Madonna said, is "what you would expect to find in a city where race is the defining issue."
According to Ceisler, the higher approval from black voters is because many of Street's initiatives "have impacted black voters more than white voters."
However, Nevin dispelled this notion.
"Mayor Street can go to literally every neighborhood in the city and point to a substantial accomplishment on their behalf," he said. "The mayor's accomplishments on behalf of the city are colorblind."
But whatever its origins, Street's support is so heavy in the black community that Katz must either get a certain percentage of the black vote or somehow depress the black turnout, according to Ceisler.
"Every black voter who doesn't come out is like a vote for Sam Katz," he said.
According to Political Science Professor Henry Teune, this is because, in the end, the election will come down to turnout.
"The turnout will be decisive," he said. "It's going to be a real turnout fight, I think, as it was last election."
Nagel added that, although a large percentage of the population is voting along racial lines, these people are not the ones who will determine the winner.
"The ones who decide the election are those not voting on racial lines -- the blacks voting for Katz and the whites voting for Street," he said.
Though neither party can deny the role race is playing in this year's election, each camp accuses the other of bringing ethnicity into the limelight.
"I think Sam Katz would like [this election] to be about race," Nevins said. "I think he would like to scare people into thinking it's about race."
But Katz, in a recent speech, said that the incumbent is to blame for race factoring so heavily into this year's election and the FBI probe.
"Philadelphia is in a moment of historic crisis, and unfortunately, the mayor has fueled the fires with a blatant appeal based on race. That's just wrong," he said. "The mayor and his campaign would like to make this a campaign about race. It's not. It's about corruption, greed and fear."
Teune pointed out that, in this way, each side appears to be playing it safe, even though race "has to be an issue" in this election.
"They know they have to be very careful, because if they really make [race] an issue, neither of them is going to have a very good time of governing the city," he said.
Regardless of the extent to which racial polarization will ultimately impact the vote, all parties agree that the focus on race could be detrimental.
Frederick Voigt, executive director of the Committee of Seventy, the nonpartisan political watchdog group, called the racial undertones in this election "unfortunate."
"The issues are more important than anything else, and they're getting smothered," he said.
Ceisler added that he is concerned that the election could result in strained racial relations in Philadelphia.
"I think it's very bad for the city," he said. "I think that this is the worst election I've ever witnessed. I think it's going to have very negative ramifications for the city. I think whoever wins is going to have trouble governing."
