Terror threat still looms, despite lowered concern

On Sept. 10, 2001, most North Americans went to bed secure in the knowledge that they would wake up in the morning and everything would be exactly like it had been the morning before and the morning before that.

Most North Americans were wrong.

Immediately after the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the nation remained in a perpetual state of worry. Buildings in New York City were evacuated daily and people were inundated with cries from survivalists and others urging them to beware -- more attacks were imminent.

Now, two years later, North Americans are still waiting.

The shock of Sept. 11 has died down. Certainly the fall of the towers has not been forgotten, but the initial fear has dulled. This year, unlike last year, neither the University nor the city are holding dozens of events in memory of those killed in the attacks.

And the Department of Homeland Security has not issued any warnings in the days before the anniversary -- the terror alert level remains at yellow, or "elevated risk," where it has rested since May.

But, according to some terrorism experts, just because al Qaeda has not yet scaled another large attack on U.S. soil does not mean it will never come.

Just how great is the possibility that al Qaeda is poised to attack the United States again -- and soon?

Well, it is not today's date that should concern people, according to Political Science Professor Brendan O'Leary.

"Anniversaries are less politically important than people imagine: paramilitaries, guerrillas and terrorists are more likely to avenge the anniversaries of dates on which they or their communities have suffered defeats, rather than engage on dates on which they performed prior attacks," O'Leary said.

The possibility of another terror attack at some point in the near future, though, remains high.

"The threat, whatever it was on September 10 [2001], certainly isn't all that different now," said Political Science Professor Stephen Gale, who teaches a course on terrorism at Penn.

Gale explained that though the United States has taken measures to ensure greater safety on passenger aircraft, it is unlikely that al Qaeda would choose to attack the country in that way a second time. For Osama bin Laden and his followers, Gale explained, Sept. 11 was generally a failure.

"The two major objectives didn't work," Gale said. "They were supposed to hit the White House and the Capitol. The buildings in New York were a diversionary attack. The idea was to decapitate government."

Now, two years later, experts disagree on the status of al Qaeda -- some say that the war in Afghanistan has significantly impacted the terrorist organization's operations, which could make an imminent attack less likely.

Political Science Professor Ian Lustick wrote in an e-mail that he believes that the "destruction of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan deprived al Qaeda of resources and help[ed] protect us, in the short term...."

Gale is not so sure.

"As far as we know... the active cells of al Qaeda as far as Sept. 11 are just as active today as they were then," he said. Explaining his belief that al Qaeda used Afghanistan simply as a training ground, he added that "al Qaeda did not work as part of the Afghani regime."

However, some think that the war and continued U.S. presence in Iraq may have weakened the country's position in the war against terror.

"I think the problem is that the war on Iraq didn't have to have anything to do with the war on terror -- but it did," said Political Science Professor Avery Goldstein, noting that this factor could lead to increased tensions with Islamists.

O'Leary agreed, explaining that the link between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein proposed by the Bush administration became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"I think the invasion of Iraq will have consolidated anti-Americanism in large parts of the Muslim world," O'Leary explained.

He and Lustick are worried not only about the anti-American sentiment created by U.S. actions overseas, but also the potentially negative feelings caused by America's treatment of Muslims at home.

"Many of the steps we have taken domestically to investigate and restrain Muslims and Arabs at home have alienated populations who could otherwise have been crucial allies in the struggle against the tiny minority of Arabs and Muslims" who may support al Qaeda, Lustick said.

But while experts agree that a threat does exist, life is expected to proceed as usual at Penn today. Still, according to Vice President for Public Safety Maureen Rush, the University is prepared to deal with the effects of a terrorist attack, should one occur in Philadelphia.

"We have a major emergency crisis plan in place," Rush said. "We have been on high alert since 9/11/01. This is just highest, highest alert."

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