Fewer apps for future classes?

Changing demographics in the near future may result in a decrease in the number of students applying to colleges nationwide. However, this may not necessarily translate into a decrease in Penn's application numbers or an increase in the University's acceptance rate.

According to a recent report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the number of high-school seniors will peak this year and will steadily decline until 2015.

Additionally, while the number of white students is expected to decline, the number of minority students - particularly Hispanics and Asians- - will likely rise.

Penn's admissions office is uncertain of how the changing demographics will affect its application numbers.

"There are a lot of variables, and one of them certainly is the number of high-school students in the U.S., but it's not the only variable," said Eric Furda, the current special assistant to the president who will become Penn's dean of admissions in July.

The projected decline in application numbers nationwide comes after skyrocketing numbers over the past several years. For the class of 2012, several elite universities saw double-digit percentage increases in the number of applicants.

Though total applications to Penn for the class of 2012 rose by less than 1 percent, the University still received the largest number of applications in its history. In the previous admissions cycle, Penn saw a 10-percent rise in applications.

Furda said the University's efforts to reach out to low-income, minority and geographically underrepresented students could help offset future decline in the number of high-school seniors.

"We're going to focus on what we can control and that we're being comprehensive with outreach," Furda said.

These efforts, including the new loan-free financial-aid policy, new informational material and Penn's acceptance of the Universal College Application, would have been taken regardless of demographic shifts, he said.

Even if there is a decline in applications, Furda said the acceptance rate would not necessarily rise. He said if the school expects more accepted students to choose to attend Penn, that would offset the fact that the application pool is smaller.

For the class of 2011, 67 percent of admitted students accepted Penn's offer, the highest percentage ever.

Penn and its peer institutions do not anticipate experiencing a substantial decline in applications.

"I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't expect lower application numbers at the 'elite' colleges," Sally Rubenstone, a college consultant with College Confidential, wrote in an e-mail.

At Stanford University, the admissions office still expects to see an increase in applications over the next few years due to changes in the school's financial-aid policy, according to its director of admissions, Shawn Abbott.

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