Wharton professor Justin Wolfers is not ashamed to admit that he knows nothing.
In fact, he hoped that his audience would walk away from his research presentation on the death penalty knowing nothing, too.
As part of a criminology lecture series, Wolfers spoke to students and colleagues in Huntsman Hall on Friday about the effects of the death penalty as a crime deterrent.
While others in the field argue that the death penalty reduces homicide rates, Wolfers insists that the data provide no conclusive evidence either way.
"The truth is, [research partner John Donohue and I] don't have a clue," Wolfers said. "But neither should anybody else."
Wolfers and Donohue concluded that there simply is not sufficient information available to determine whether the threat of execution really prevents criminals from committing murders.
"The bottom line is that we have no way to tell what's going on in these criminals' minds," he said. "Since every state has its own policies, they may or may not be aware of the possible consequences."
According to Wolfers, the death penalty's potential to deter crime is reduced by the fact that criminals spend such a long period of time waiting on death row.
"Even on the slim chance that you are sentenced to death, you'd have to be the unluckiest criminal in the world to get executed in this country," he said.
Wolfers questioned the methods of researchers who claim that the death penalty significantly impacts crime, noting that data can be easily manipulated to support a hypothesis.
He said that of the studies relating to the issue, few come to firm conclusions. Those few, however, are the ones that get published, he said, creating a false impression of reliability.
By publishing his own analyses of the data, Wolfers hopes to lead others to reconsider previous reports.
"It sounds hard to believe, but I'm standing up here and promising you that I'm right, and these other guys are wrong. And that's the truth," he said.
Criminology professor Richard Berk, who sat in on the presentation, noted the importance of discussing the morality of these policies.
"The presentation brings to light important issues, both legally and morally. We need to actively discuss benefits and drawbacks," he said.
