Getting a Ph.D. may not be worth the effort, according to a report by historian and economist Gary North.
The report, published by North on a libertarian Web log at lewrockwell.com, indicates that since 1969, more people have been getting their doctorates than the economy could handle, resulting in a "Ph.D. glut."
North said that in modern society, fewer tenure-track positions are available for a growing number of doctoral students, which ultimately means wasted time and money for those who try.
Yet the number of available positions at Penn seems to be relatively steady. According to data released in the University newsletter Almanac in 2005, 18 percent of faculty were on track to be tenured, essentially guaranteeing them a job until retirement, in 1993, while in 2003 about 16 percent were.
However, graduate students still feel pressure from the system.
"In order to get a good teaching job you need to have taught your own class and have had articles published," History and Education graduate student Tina Collins said. "This is in addition to a high-quality dissertation. The amount of work involved, and the knowledge that the pool is shrinking, dissuades people from finishing their degrees."
North's report concurs.
In 1969, there were about 30,000 Ph.D. graduates per year. In 2003, there were 46,024. This increase, according to North, can only forecast failure for the majority of Ph.D students looking to get tenure.
Such a sentiment has pervaded the Penn atmosphere, according to several graduate students, and is also reflected in available statistics.
A report from the Graduate Employees and Students Organization at Yale stated that "new scholars are competing for an ever-shrinking pool of secure ... positions."
The report, entitled "The (Un)Changing Face of the Ivy League," was released in February of last year.
It found that from 1993 to 2003, the number of tenure-track jobs in the Ivy League -- which can lead to full professorships -- had increased by a mere 10 percent, while the number of non-tenure track jobs had increased by 108 percent.
According to statistics released by the Department of Education, at Penn in 2003 there were 1,086 tenured professors, 476 professors on the tenure track and 2,864 professors on the non-tenure track.
North also argues that unless a student graduates from a top university, he or she will have a much harder time finding a job.
"You're ultimately better off if you graduate from Penn," Collins said. "But the same problem is occurring everywhere -- people who graduate from here still aren't getting jobs."
This situation may be worrisome to many students, but some don't dwell on what the future holds.
"It's all about perspective," English graduate student Rachael Nichols said. "Some people aren't going to be happy unless they teach at Harvard; I could care less."
Fellow English graduate student Rosemary O'Neill agrees.
O'Neill -- who is studying medieval literature -- said that she is not scared about the lack of jobs.
"There's mobility in academics," she said. "You can find work anywhere; life doesn't end because you don't get tenure."
And there are still success stories out there.
Take Michael Weisberg, a Philosophy professor who was hired at at 26. He says that his break came from a mixture of "working really hard and getting lucky.
"It's true that the job market is fierce," Weisberg added. "But getting a Ph.D. is one of the most exciting intellectual endeavors you can have. Even if someone isn't successful in the job market, it's not as if they've lost all value."
Ph.D. report - In the 1960s, there were about 30,000 Ph.D. grads per year. In 2003, there were 46,024 - In 1993, 18 percent of Penn faculty were on track for tenure. In 2003, 16 percent were
