FBI probe, raids not affecting Street campaign

As the race for mayor of Philadelphia heads into the final two weeks and the federal probe involving John Street continues, campaign workers and political analysts alike are assessing just what needs to happen for either candidate to win.

The upheaval in the campaign revolves around the discovery last week of a high-tech listening device in Mayor Street's City Hall office.

The bug was installed as part of a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe, in which Street is a subject.

The FBI also raided municipal buildings and offices of private citizens over the past week in an effort to expedite the now-exposed investigation.

Yesterday afternoon that effort continued, with raids at the Municipal Services Building and 2 Penn Center in Center City and at the offices of Ronald White, an attorney and long-time Street supporter, according to WPVI, the local ABC news affiliate.

Earlier in the week, rumors surfaced that Street might drop out of the Nov. 4 election and be succeeded by another prominent Democrat candidate.

These rumors have been almost completely dispelled.

"No way, no how," said Larry Ceisler, a political consultant and partner at the public relations firm Ceisler Jubelirer, when asked about the possibility of Street's withdrawal.

Although the purpose of the investigation has not been divulged, the FBI has been consistently leaking information to the public, and the campaigns of both Street and his challenger, Republican Sam Katz, must now decide how to proceed.

"It certainly has honed Street," political consultant Ken Smukler said. "It's clarified for Street his attack line against Katz."

This so-called attack line revolves around the civil embezzlement lawsuit in which Katz is currently involved. The suit stems from a criminal investigation in which Katz was cleared of all charges. Some of his associates were convicted.

"Street clearly had this embezzlement lawsuit in his arsenal," Smukler said. "I'm not so sure that they were ready to pull the trigger on it as quickly and as harshly as they have."

Street spokesman Mark Nevins disagreed.

The bugging "doesn't really change anything," he said. "There was a Daily News poll taken before all of this happened that showed us up by eight points."

The most recent polls, conducted earlier this week, still show a tight race between the two candidates, but Street's slim statistical lead has not decreased.

Political analysts cautioned against using polling data in Philadelphia as indicators of a candidate's success, especially in a race as close as this one, since the polls cannot measure voter turnout.

"Polling in Philadelphia is a very inexact science," Ceisler said.

Both candidates' hopes hinge on a large turnout among their own voter base, and a smaller turnout among their opponent's.

The bugging will likely either energize Street's voter base -- black voters who maintain a plurality in Philadelphia -- or cause the still undecided voters to swing toward Katz. Analysts said it is too soon to tell which scenario is more likely.

"John Street is not the type of politician who would engender passion" in his voter base, Ceisler said. "This probe has done what John Street has never been able to do: it made his base passionate."

Street has attempted to use the bugging to his advantage by portraying the investigation as a greater Republican conspiracy against him.

"It plays to Street," Ceisler said. "At worst, it is a grand conspiracy ordered by George Bush because he wants to embarrass a black mayor and carry Pennsylvania. At best, it is insensitive on the part of the Justice Department and poor timing."

As for Katz, it appears that there is not much he can do except play it cool.

"Katz played it as well as he could play it," Smukler said. "He couldn't be strident about it, and in part, that's because the more strident he becomes, the more angry John Street's base becomes. The second [reason] is that the story sells itself."

"For the undecided voters and Katz's base voters, the story alone is enough to get them energized," he added.

Both candidates released new television advertisements yesterday with regard to the swirling controversy. Street equates Katz's embezzlement investigation with his own investigation in his ad. Katz counters by calling Street a liar and highlighting the current FBI investigation.

Street's "negative message against Katz is going to be kind of centered on this embezzlement lawsuit," Smukler said. "Trying to kind of muddy this [FBI] investigation in the minds of the voters."

Ceisler reiterated that this is Street's election to win or lose.

"There's really nothing much Katz can do," he said. "Because he's outgunned electorally and registration-wise, he can only do the best he can do with what he has and hope that Street can't turn out his voters."

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