Expert: Natural disasters always a possible threat

If the Canary Island's Cumbre Vieja volcano collapses, as geologist Simon Day predicts, a giant tidal wave would charge across the Atlantic Ocean and crash into the East Coast. Waves could potentially reach heights of up to 130 feet.

And you thought Hurricane Isabel was bad.

Tsunamis, landslides and volcanoes were the subject of Thursday's lecture by Day, a British geologist from University College London.

The event was held in the University Museum, and drew a crowd of roughly 100 students and faculty.

A tsunami, Day explained, is "a gravity wave in the sea produced by a sudden displacement of the sea floor."

Tsunamis can result from any number of natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides and large meteor impacts.

While normal wave periods last 20 to 30 seconds, in a tsunami, the time between wave crests can span anywhere from three minutes to an hour.

Not surprisingly, these natural events can produce catastrophic results.

A tsunami caused by an eruption on the island of Santorini, for example, may have caused the eventual decline of the Minoan civilization, Day said.

According to the geologist, maritime civilizations are particularly vulnerable to such natural disasters.

"The U.S. today is a classic maritime power," Day said.

There is little chance, however, of a giant tsunami hitting the United States anytime soon.

"The long-term frequency for these things is one in every 20,000 years," Day told the crowd.

And thanks to computer models, researchers can predict when and where future tsunamis will occur.

Day, for example, has targeted several locations, including Hawaii and the Canary Islands, as hot spots for such geological activity.

Computer programs also provide clues about past natural disasters, allowing scientists to investigate mythic tales of lost islands like Atlantis.

Graduate student Andrew Pike, who attended the lecture, enjoyed Day's presentation.

"It's interesting to learn about world devastating events you haven't considered," he said.

College junior Sidi Gomes said he also found the event engaging, especially since he is from Cape Verde, one of the sites discussed in the lecture.

He was less convinced, however, of any imminent danger.

"In terms of probability, you probably shouldn't worry at all," he said.

Day agreed, but cautioned against putting events like tsunamis on "the back burner."

"It's unlikely that one of these collapses would occur in any of our lifetimes," Day said. "But when it does, it's likely we will see tsunamis on a devastating scale."

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