Poll forecasts tight mayoral race this fall

The results are in.

According to the first major media poll of the upcoming mayoral campaign this fall's Street-Katz rematch will be as close, if not closer, than the election in 1999.

The Keystone Poll was conducted at by Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Millersville University, and Berwood Yost, director of the school's Center for Opinion Research.

To the surprise of many, the poll, which was released on March 27, gives Republican candidate Sam Katz a thin lead over incumbent Mayor John Street. If the election for mayor of Philadelphia were held today, 44 percent would vote for Katz and 40 percent would vote for Street, while 15 percent said they remain undecided.

"Overall, electorally, I see people as divided on Street," Yost said. "There are nearly as many people who view him favorably as unfavorably and that means there are a large number of people who believe it is time for a change in City Hall."

Although Street is trailing in the early polls, Katz is far behind on name recognition. Thirty-four percent of Philadelphians have not heard enough about Katz to have an opinion on him, whereas only 3 percent feel they do not know enough about Street.

Another key component of the mayoral campaign is the divisive issue of race. If the election were held today, 70 percent of blacks would vote for Street and only 13 percent for Katz, whereas 72 percent of whites would vote for Katz and only 16 percent would vote for Street.

"I think the support base on race is the key demographic," Madonna said. "Philadelphia is, as it was in the past mayoral election, very racially divided with Street securing a heavy preponderance of African American votes and Katz securing the majority of white voters."

The mayoral campaign will also rely heavily on Street's record while in office. Only 37 percent of voters believe Street has done a good enough job as mayor to deserve re-election, with 52 percent saying that it is time for a change.

"When an election includes an incumbent office holder, the election is always about the incumbent's performance," Yost said. "Street is far less popular than Ed Rendell was going into his second term."

"Does it mean he's going to lose? No, it doesn't. But the right campaign may be able to take advantage of that dissatisfaction."

However, Street has received approval from voters for many of his initiatives, specifically the decreasing crime rate and improving neighborhood conditions. When Street came into office, 50 percent of voters thought crime and drugs were the most important problems facing Philadelphia. Now, only 25 percent think so.

"No single issue predominates like crime did in 1999 when it was clearly the overriding issue," Madonna said. "Instead, there are now four or five issues that are going to play a role in the re-election or defeat of Street."

These issues will depend on Street's past job performance, and with only 37 percent of voters saying that he is doing a good job as mayor, re-election appears uncertain.

"Overall, his job performance has been mediocre, which is weaker than you would expect an incumbent to have," Madonna said. "If it's under 50 percent, it usually indicates the mayor's re-election is problematic, which isn't to say he can't win or might well win, but Philadelphians can look to a close election."

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