Experts credit Bush with GOP success

While last night's elections were for governorships and Congressional seats, Penn experts say that Election Day 2002 was mostly about presidential politics and national policy.

Republicans now control 51 seats in the Senate, with races still undecided in South Dakota and Louisiana that could add to the already established majority.

The GOP also gained at least three House seats, bringing its total to 226, exceeding the 218 seats needed for control.

"This is a big victory for the Republicans, no doubt about it," Political Science Professor Henry Teune said. "It's unusual, historically -- they picked up seats in the House that they weren't supposed to."

Much of the Republican Party's success has been attributed to President Bush's intense campaigning on behalf of a variety of Republican candidates.

"I think it has a tremendous amount to do with Bush," said Annenberg Public Policy Center research fellow David Eisenhower. "He personalized and nationalized it and injected his presidency into it, and he has gotten the credit for it.

"This was the confirming election that Bush was seeking."

With party loyalty at the forefront of any election, Bush confirmed his role as the unifier of the Republican party.

"The most important thing for the Republicans is that Bush has that party unified and mobilized," Teune said. "There was no visible, media-detectible internal division in the Republican party."

In an election with many issues at the forefront, the question of a possible war with Iraq seems to have had a large impact.

"I hate to say this but I think that the Iraq situation helped the Republicans," Political Science Department Chairman Jack Nagel said. "Normally we would see it as a good chance for the Democrats, with corporate scandals and the economy doing poorly, but foreign policy seemed to potentially be the issue."

"A cynical interpretation would be to see Iraq as a way of distracting attention away from the economy," Fels Institute for Government Director Lawrence Sherman added. "This is the longest discussed war that hasn't happened in the history of the United States."

In an election night full of surprises, one of the most talked about was Republican Norm Coleman's victory over former Vice President Walter Mondale in the Minnesota Senate race. This particular race gained public attention following the death of incumbent Sen. Paul Wellstone in a plane crash on Oct. 25.

"I thought Mondale would take Minnesota," Teune said.

"But now they have a more mixed population than the traditional Hubert Humphrey labor party that dominated for decades."

The Missouri Senate race ended with a similar outcome, as Republican Jim Talent beat incumbent Democrat Jean Carnahan. Former Sen. Carnahan was appointed to the seat her husband won posthumously after, like Wellstone, dying in a plane crash.

In other Senate races, Republican Elizabeth Dole won comfortably over former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles in North Carolina, and in New Jersey, Democrat Frank Lautenberg defeated Republican Doug Forrester by a wide margin after controversially replacing incumbent Bob Torricelli on the ballot.

Gubernatorial elections showed Republicans gaining in the South and Democrats in the Midwest.

President Bush's younger brother Jeb became the first Republican governor in Florida history to win reelection with his victory over Bill McBride.

And in Pennsylvania, Democrat Ed Rendell defeated state Attorney General Mike Fisher, although not by as great a margin as earlier polls had suggested.

"Rendell's coat tails were not long enough to make a great difference in the state and house races," Nagel said. "Republicans still control the state legislature, which will make his job harder."

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