Despite troubled economy, spike in crime unlikely

As the nation's economy continues to plummet, many are wondering how crime rates will react following the large increase in unemployment in the past few weeks.

According to the Department of Public Safety, the University is adequately prepared for any increase in crime.

"We never sit back on our laurels," said Maureen Rush, vice president for public safety. "Our level of vigilance is always at peak."

And yet, despite the economic slowdown that is almost certainly expected to worsen, many of the nation's criminologists are doubtful crime rates will increase as a result.

According to Lawrence Sherman, director of the Fels Center of Government, the oft-cited rule that crime rates go up when the economy tanks is not supported by statistics.

"The record shows there is no uniform relationship between the economy and violent crime, such as murder," Sherman said. "And other crimes are measured too poorly to have any reliable conclusions."

La Salle University Criminology Professor Finn Hornum agreed, noting that history has proved conventional wisdom wrong.

"Most of the studies have shown there is no obvious relationship [between crime rates] with either increases or decreases in the business cycle," Hornum said. "For example, in the Depression there is no evidence there were increases in crime."

The economic model of crime, though, has its supporters.

Academics such as Harvard University Professor Richard Freeman see evidence that the economic boom of the 1990s helped reduce crime.

"The 1990s boom was the longest in the 20th century," Freeman said in a presentation in Washington last year. "Over roughly the same period, the rate of crime reported in the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports fell."

According to the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, the UCR rate -- which includes all violent and property crimes -- dropped by close to 30 percent from 1990 through 1998.

But, according to Sherman, one cannot look at the occurrence of homicide, for instance, on a societal level and gain a proper understanding of crime trends.

"We know that homicide rates are highest in neighborhoods where unemployment is highest," Sherman said. But "it would be really hard to predict what will happen in the future."

"With a short-term recession, anything can happen," Sherman added.

With all of the uncertainty, public policy makers could understandably be left with no clear direction where to go when it comes to lowering the crime rate.

Hornum recommends capitalizing on new technology.

"One of the things we are able to do through crime mapping [is to] locate where crime is most likely to occur and what crimes are more likely to occur" in a given area, Hornum said.

So, whereas former president Bill Clinton advocated increasing the overall number of police officers on the street, Hornum pointed out crime mapping suggests "where manpower decisions need to be made."

For University Police, the solution is in method as well as numbers.

Rush contended that one of the benefits the University Police have is the ability to conduct a community-wide campaign of enforcement.

According to Bill Danks, University Police deputy chief of investigations, police officers will increasingly knock on apartment doors left open to see if the occupants are alright.

"Our officers understand they're here not to react to crime, but to prevent crime," Rush added.

According to Steve Cooper, a criminology professor at Chapman University in California, society must tackle broader economic issues to decrease crime.

"Adding more cops" does not decrease crime outright, Cooper said. "Theoretically, the idea is to make society more equitable."

According to Cooper, inner-city crime can increase in an economic boom, especially in the kind the United States experienced in the last 10 years.

"It's actually the rich people who are getting richer [and] the poor people are getting poorer," Cooper said. "That's a problem."

Poorer people "then internalize this stress and frustration [and] turn it against those people they work with... rich people," Cooper added.

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