Altering turnout, rain could leave one candidate out to dry

Stormy weather is forecast for today. But this isn't just any ordinary day -- it's Election Day in what will likely turn out to be the closest mayoral general election the city has seen in decades. And the pitter-patter of little raindrops may actually affect the election's outcome. Experts say that bad weather impacts voter turnout as it often keeps the less passionate voters from the polls. "Rain tends to hold down the low-intensity voters," said David L. Cohen, outgoing Mayor Ed Rendell's former chief of staff. According to voting expert Curtis Gans, nothing short of a blizzard will keep motivated voters from their civic duty. "It depends on who's motivated to vote," said Gans, director of the Washington, D.C.-based Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Gans noted that in 1992 some Atlanta voters stood in line at polling places for 2 1/2 hours in the rain to vote for then-Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton for president. And Gans said that in the tight Philadelphia election, there is motivation for voters to tough it out in less-than-ideal weather. But it is hard to gauge which candidate has the motivated voters who will put on their raincoats and face the weather conditions. According to a recent Daily News/Fox Philadelphia Keystone Poll, voters who may not vote favor Democrat John Street. Voters who are certain to vote favor Republican Sam Katz by a 44-34 margin. This may tilt the balance in Katz's favor. Penn History and Public Policy Professor Theodore Hershberg said that the bad weather may benefit Katz because he has a wide range of strong supporters. Hershberg explained that Street, on the other hand, is relying on people who consistently vote Democrat but may not have a strong inclination to vote for him. "Street is not somebody people are excited about," Hershberg said, adding that Street will need to mobilize the Democrats to hit the polls if he is to win. But Hershberg also added that rain may deter some of the elderly voters on whom Katz is counting. Both candidates downplayed the effect rain will have on tomorrow's outcome. "Most people who are worrying about that have no idea," Katz spokesperson Bob Barnett said. "There's going to be a moderate turnout anyway." And Street spokesperson Ken Snyder said their field team was equipped with 3,000 umbrellas to ward off the rain. "We have a phenomenal field organization," he said. "I don't know if it will be a problem. I just know that we're prepared."

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