Study: College lists do have large effect

Three students who rejected offers of admission from the California Institute of Technology called the school last month to say they had changed their minds. Not because they suddenly realized they wanted to be at a small engineering school in Southern California, but because of the latest issue of a major news magazine. Less than 24 hours after U.S. News & World Report ranked Caltech as the No. 1 school in the country, the three claimed to have had sudden changes of heart. Caltech turned them down. Every September, colleges and universities turn their attention to the U.S. News rankings. And according to a recent study, rankings that are easily manipulated can dramatically affect the quality and size of a school's applicant pool. Using data from more than 30 institutions over a 12-year period, the study found that when a school's ranking improves, the number of applicants the next year rises, its yield increases and the average SAT scores of applicants go up, according to study co-author Ronald Ehrenberg of the Cornell Higher Education Research Institute. The findings also show that it is possible for schools to manipulate their ranking by making insignificant changes that have no effect on the institution's academic quality. Ehrenberg, noted, however, that year-to-year changes in the rankings have more to do with variations in the magazine's evaluation process than with changes in the schools. "Over a one-year period the quality of what's going on doesn't change very much," he said. This seems to be the case at Caltech, whose ranking jumped to No. 1 this year, up from No. 9 last year. Although Ehrenberg cautioned that the rankings are "absolutely not" indicators of good or bad schools, he said many prospective students -- such as the three at Caltech -- and their parents do take the rankings seriously to the extent that "enough people do so that it makes a difference." As a result, the schools themselves must take the rankings seriously. A three- to five-place jump or fall has "substantial effects at what? goes on at these institutions," Ehrenberg said. Even minor shifts can have effects, he added, as "enough people do [take them seriously] so that at the margin it makes a difference." "We have, over the last few years, as our applicant pool goes up and our places go down, gotten more selective," Caltech Admissions Director Charlene Liebau said.