Phila. leads counties in population decline

Philadelphia has lost more residents than any other county in the nation this decade, seeing close to a 150,000-person drop, according to figures released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau. According to the Census Bureau statistics, the population of Philadelphia County -- which is made up solely of the city -- dropped from 1,585,577 in 1990 to 1,436,287 in 1998, a 9.4 percent decrease. But city officials -- including Mayor Ed Rendell, who took office in 1992 -- have been quick to attack the report's accuracy, claiming the figures undercount the actual number of residents. Population decline is a trend that has haunted Philadelphia for the past several decades, but the Rendell administration believes the recent numbers are "just flat wrong" and intends to work with the Census Bureau to find and correct any possible errors. "We believe that Philadelphia and cities like Philadelphia have been undercounted for a number of years, especially in the 1990s," mayoral spokesperson Kevin Feeley said. "We believe there are more people here than the Census Bureau gives us credit for." Citing the demand for public services and "anecdotal evidence in communities," Feeley explained that there is "a lot of evidence" to prove that Philadelphia is being shortchanged in the latest count. He also pointed to a 1994 census count of children living in poverty -- which local welfare lists eventually proved inaccurate -- as an example of the bureau's past miscounts. "We know they make mistakes like that all the time," he noted. Still, Feeley admitted that Philadelphia's population has decreased over the past eight years. He emphasized, though, that the official 2000 census needs to be more precise. "Sure, we've lost people and nobody's disputing the fact that we've lost people," Feeley said. "But in this context, we're coming upon the decennial census and we want to make sure to get it right." Census data will be especially important in 2000 because the figure determines representation in the House of Representatives, as well as serving other political purposes. Meanwhile, other surrounding counties -- including Bucks, Chester and Montgomery -- experienced population increases ranging roughly from 6 to 12 percent. Delaware County's numbers dipped less than one percent. In contrast, New York County increased by 4.2 percent, Chicago's Cook County rose 1.7 percent and Los Angeles County went up 4 percent. Although Feeley said he believed the study would not ultimately affect Philadelphia's reputation or tarnish the widely-praised Rendell administration, he said that errors in the federal government's official population figures could hurt state funding and political representation. Marc Perry, a demographer with the Census Bureau in Washington, D.C., noted that the study only looked at populations in the nation's counties, and because Philadelphia is unlike many American cities in that it comprises its own county, the declining numbers may be deceiving. "It's not always appropriate to compare demographic trends," Perry said. "I advise people not to look just at the county numbers but to look beyond that at the whole metropolitan picture." Perry explained that three factors -- births and deaths, domestic immigration and international immigration -- contribute to population fluctuations and that annual estimates are made by gathering various national, state and local records. Singling out urban areas like Baltimore, Washington and St. Louis, Perry said that Philadelphia's situation was not unusual. "What's been going on in Philadelphia mirrors what's been going on in some other counties," Perry added. John Keene, a Penn professor of City and Regional Planning, also stressed the difference between cities and counties, adding that it is important to measure both the quality and quantity of a city's inhabitants. "What I would like to know [from this report] is what the composition of the people coming in and the people coming out," said Keene, who identified income and job skill as key traits for which to look. Los Angeles County had the biggest population increase in the country, experiencing an influx of 95,000 people.

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