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MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Until recently, President Bush campaign volunteer Bill Turner firmly believed that yesterday's Republican primary election would be a cakewalk for the President. But as the somber, almost funereal mood at Bush campaign headquarters suggested yesterday, Patrick Buchanan's meteoric rise in the polls was about to change all that. "It's a bit of a shock for us," Turner admitted yesterday afternoon, adding that a year ago Bush seemed unbeatable in the wake of the success of the Persian Gulf War. But Turner, like many political pundits and even most Buchanan backers, quickly insisted that the conservative columnist's performance here would have no bearing on Bush's quest for reelection. "There is no question in my mind that President Bush will easily gain renomination and beat whoever the Democratic candidate is in the fall," he said. "The Buchanan vote here is just a protest vote. The people here are just disappointed with the economy right now." Ken Schmidt, a Buchanan supporter who spent yesterday afternoon wildly waving a Buchanan placard on Elm Street, agreed that most of the Buchanan voters were simply unhappy because of the recession and would pull for Bush in November. Many other Buchanan supporters readily admitted that they do not expect their candidate to wrestle the Republican nomination from Bush in the end. But they added that, in this case, winning is not everything. If the Buchanan challenge manages to force Bush a little to the right politically, they said, then Buchanan's goal would have been largely achieved. Charles Cipollini stood on the corner of Elm and Bridge streets yesterday afternoon, shaking a Buchanan banner up and down as passing motorists honked their approval. "I thought it was a protest vote in the beginning," Cipollini said. "But this is just to put our country first." He accused Bush of failing to tackle domestic problems and reneging on his promise not to raise taxes. "I supported Bush in '88," he said. "It was the biggest mistake of my life. We're heading for a depression here and he is running around the world acting like he is the president of the world."

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