Faculty concerned about about future of region

With the war in the Persian Gulf just two days old, many University professors yesterday expressed greater concern this week over the aftermath of the conflict rather than the war itself. But for the professors, some of whom have spent years of their life researching the Middle East, the Gulf War is just one in a series of episodes in the continuing evolution of a turbulent region. For the past week, the experts have repeatedly voiced concerns over the future of Iraqi government, increasing animosity between Western and Arab nations, and the continuing impasse in solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As of late yesterday, Iraq had already launched a missile attack on Israel and many University experts said they feel Iraq may also exploit strengths in other forms of combat -- perhaps resorting to terrorist attacks. Understanably, faculty are becoming increasing wary of making predictions that could soon turn out to be wrong. Most recently, many were surprised at the speed with which the U.S. and its allies attacked after the United Nations deadline passed. Most professors said they had expected the U.N. coalition to delay the start of fighting, in part to make further military preparations. But in the end, the decision to attack Iraq Wednesday may have come down to weather. "It's a new moon for these few days and the weather is going to be clear," said Political Science Professor Frederic Frey. "So it's ideal conditions for night fighting." But such discussion have become academic. The question for many now has become how long the war will last, and who will eventually prevail. "There's very little doubt that we will win the war eventually, whether it is short or long," Frey said. He said he worries more about the turmoil the war will create in the region. One of Frey's predictions made earlier this week came true as Iraq launched a missle attack on Israel last night. "The longer this goes on without an attack on Israel, the harder [an attack on Israel] will be for Iraqis to avoid," Frey said. Peace Science Professor Stephen Gale also predicted the Iraqi attack on Israel, but questioned whether it was an intelligent move strategically. "If Hussein is smart he won't bring in the Israelis because Israel has no compunction against leveling Iraq," he said. There was no word on a possible Israel response as of late last night. Gale teaches the Peace Science program's Terrorism class. He said Iraq may resort to terrorist tactics as an alternative form of leverage if direct military action is unsuccessful. "As soon as Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, all of the major players in terrorism moved to Baghdad," he said. Gale said possible terrorist acts could include bombings, airplane hijackings, assassinations, and disruptions of water and electric utilities, among possible Iraqi targets. He said terrorism experts currently believe terrorists will choose targets in Western Europe, but that the United States is extremely vulnerable as well. "They'll be spot actions, but I'm sure they will be planned out very carefully," added Gale. Gale said that Saddam Hussein's is now destined to leave the international theater in a "blaze of history." He said that Hussein may survive the war only to be assassinated by any of the many enemies he has made since the Gulf showdown began. But the defeat of Saddam Hussein would not mean instant peace in the Middle East, the experts warned. A political vacuum in the Persian Gulf created by an Iraqi defeat might be filled by Syria or Iran. "We haven't explored what the effects of a war will be on the balance of power in the area," History Professor Alfred Reiber said. He added that tensions could escalate with Arab nations as a new precedent is set of "U.S. intervention under U.N. sponsorship." "In the near future, there will be an enormous backlash against the Western Europeans and the U.S. in general," he said. Such a backlash would jeopardize hopes for a Middle East peace conference, recently advocated by leaders including U.N. Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar, he said. Other experts agreed, saying that tensions between Arabs, Israelis, and Westerners inextricably linked in the current Gulf crisis might become an insurmountable obstacle at the bargaining table. This could leave other countries that have a stake in the Gulf Region out of potential talks, Oler said. He added that he fears further destabilization of third-world countries that have important economic links with Arab countries. "The issue of oil prices [in third world countries] is one of food or famine, rather than the type of car you can drive," he said.

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