Poll ends speculation -- Clinton trounces Bush in Ivy League

and JASPER REYNOLDS As Election Day approaches, advisors in Little Rock try to speculate what states will go Bill Clinton's way. But there is no guesswork needed at the University -- this is Clinton Country. According to The Daily Pennsylvanian/Ivy League poll conducted last week, the University's undergraduate electorate is solidly behind the Arkansas governor. Of registered voters, 53 percent said they would vote for Clinton and his running mate Sen. Al Gore (D-Tenn), 19 percent said they would vote for President Bush and Vice-President Quayle, and 11 percent said they would back Texas billionaire Ross Perot and James Stockdale. Sixteen percent of registered voters were undecided. College Democrats Co-President George Callas said that the wide margin of Clinton's support reflects the twentysomething generation's desire for change. "Young people are ready for a new generation [of leadership]," the Wharton sophomore said. "We are ready to move on to the next stage of American history." Clinton also draws his support from the 16.3 percent of registered Republicans who have left the party fold. Also hurting Bush, 21.7 percent of registered Republicans have defected to Perot. Conversely, a statistically insignificant amount of registered Democrats said they would vote for Bush. Independent voters also flocked to Clinton, with close to half of them, 48.7 percent, stating their intention to back the former Rhodes scholar. "This is not a realignment," said Frank Luntz, an American Civilization lecturer and GOP pollster. "This is a rejection of George Bush, not an acclamation of the Democrats." One of the most telling traits the poll revealed about undergraduate voters at the University is the disparities in political persuasion and ideology between the sexes. More women -- 33 percent to 23 percent male -- are registered Democrats, and almost twice as many men -- 29.3 percent to 15.2 percent female -- are registered Republicans. Falling along these lines, 24 percent of men at the University support Bush, compared to 14 percent of the women. For the other two candidates, the gap is even wider. A huge number of women, 60.1 percent, support the Democrat Clinton, while 43.2 percent of men do. For Perot, 17.5 percent of men and only 6.7 percent women back the independent candidate. "I think what you see here is a gender gap, [but] it's also a time gap," said Marc Laydin, head of Penn for Perot. "Bill Clinton has been out there longer." The poll also reflects a broad-based, overriding concern University voters on the issues of abortion, education, the environment, health care, and the job market, all the issues which were polled. Ninety-nine percent of those polled said that education was an important issue in deciding for whom they would vote. In all the issue questions, a majority of the respondents who felt that these areas were "very important" to their voting decision said they would vote for Clinton. For instance, 68.7 percent of people who felt the environment was important said they would vote for Clinton. Only 8.6 percent of the same group of voters said they would back Bush on the issue of environment. However, Bush does best on economic issues such as health care and the job market, peaking with the support of 20.1 percent of the voters who feel the job market is a crucial issue. Perot also gets his highest numbers of voters from those who think health care and the job market are very important. "I'm a senior," said Laydin. "So I have a problem of who's going to put me in the best economic shape." Bush and Perot supporters also share similar concerns over what they feel are the most and least important issues in the campaign. Both said the most important is the job market and the least important is the environment. Clinton supporters also think the job market is important, but issues such as abortion and environment are more important to them. Of Clinton supporters, 83.3 percent think education is a very important issue in the election. Outside of the horse race between the candidates, a picture of the University electorate also comes into focus from the poll. The undergraduate student body is almost divided evenly in thirds among Republican, Democrat and Independent registrations. Eleven percent of those polled are not registered to vote, and about half are registered to vote in Pennsylvania. Of these voters, 38 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate Lynn Yeakel for Senate while 28 percent said they would back the incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter. Yet 34 percent of the University's in-state voters have not made up their mind in this race, and the campus vote could swing to either candidate. Callas said Specter is running strong at the University because of the amount of money he has spent on the race. But Dana Lynch, president of the College Republicans, differs with the Wharton sophomore. "If you look at the Senate candidate [Specter] and the Congressional candidate [Larry Hollin], they are progressive Republicans, and I think they will do well even though Bush isn't," Lynch said. In the traditionally conservative Wharton School, Republicans outnumber Democrats two to one, yet 36 percent of Wharton students support Clinton as compared to 25 percent for Bush. "It's a disaster for the President," said Luntz. "If George Bush can't win Wharton, then he can't win at any university." Callas and Lynch agree that the Bush/Quayle's right-wing stance on social issues probably explains the defection of this Republican group. Twenty-one percent of Wharton students said they would pull the lever for Perot -- the highest percentage of his supporters among the four undergraduate schools. Laydin said this statistic does not surprise him because Wharton students have "traditional Republican sentiments" and there are "big differences in the candidates' economic packages. People vote their pocketbook." Almost two-thirds of College students -- the core of the Democratic ticket's University support -- back Clinton. The College also has the highest percentage of registered voters with 94.5 percent registered. The other schools each have about 82 percent registered. Differences among classes at the University are slight, yet a higher percentage of freshmen -- 17.2 percent -- are Perot supporters than any other year. Laydin remarked that he sees a similar breakdown of the support Penn for Perot receives. Freshmen are "really gung-ho." The newest and oldest students at the University are the least concerned with the job market when selecting a President. Eighty percent of the sophomores and juniors surveyed said the job market is a very important issue to them, and only 68 percent of the seniors and 67 percent of the freshmen listed the job market in the same category. "A percentage of those seniors are not looking to put themselves in the job market," said Peggy Curchack, assistant director for the College in the Career Planning and Placement Service. While many sophomores and juniors are reviewing their options for summer employment, Curchack said, the number of seniors applying to graduate schools this year have "sky-rocketed". "That is an indication of [the seniors'] sense of vulnerability," Curchack said. · The differences between the sexes on the candidates and on the important issues of the campaign point to a growing gulf between the agendas of men and women. The difference is most glaring on the issue of abortion. Almost 20 percent of men feel that abortion is not an important issue in selecting the next president, while a statistically insignificant number of women, 4.2 percent, felt similarly. On the flip side, 69.9 percent of women feel abortion is a very important issue while only 30.5 percent of men agree. "It's disheartening, since abortion is still perceived as a women's issue," said Allison Marinoff, co-chairperson of Penn Pro-Choice. "[It] should be perceived as a civil rights issue." On the other side of the fence, Kevin Welch -- a founder of the Penn Coalition for Life -- said that he too feels abortion should be a concern for both sexes. "Because a man and woman are equally responsible for creating a child, it should be an equal concern for both sexes," he said. Luntz, who last month conducted the largest survey of American college students since the political conventions, said that "abortion is one issue that is driving the gender chasm." Beyond the statistics and minutiae, is what the poll says about the important issues to the country's future leaders. "The Ivy League reflects the greatest number of future leaders," Luntz said. "Imagine how this bodes [for society], how this affects society in the next 20, 30 years."

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