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Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026
The Daily Pennsylvanian

Florida likely to be pivotal in GOP race

Today's winner-take-all primary could determine course of Giuliani's campaign

It's hardly the calm before the storm.

Florida has become a pivota-l -- and competitive - race in pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination.

As Floridians vote today, they are effectively determining who goes to the playoffs on Feb. 5, when 22 states hold their primaries. Momentum gained from the Sunshine State will be critical for success in other parts of the country.

Since Jan. 3, six states have voted for president, but a clear frontrunner has yet to emerge. All of that may change tonight.

With a population of 18 million, Florida is easily the most populous state to hold a primary thus far. It is also the most diverse state, with strong Latino, elderly, Jewish and evangelist communities.

Candidates have spent weeks reaching out to these groups, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani staking his entire campaign strategy on this one state.

However, it seems unlikely that Giuliani's strategy will pay off.

According to Real Clear Politics averages, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain are statistically tied at 29 percent. Giuliani is trailing in third with just 16 percent.

"It's definitely make-or-break for Giuliani," said Penn political science professor Richard Johnston.

Johnston believes, as many political pundits do, that Giuliani's candidacy will be effectively over if he doesn't finish in first or second place today.

Romney and McCain, meanwhile, are campaigning aggressively against one another.

Yesterday, Romney attacked McCain's voting record and leadership ability, while McCain has criticized Romney's positions, saying Romney has changed his viewpoints repeatedly.

Florida is not unfamiliar with campaign attention. It was, after all, the center of the political world in 2000, when its vote count determined who won the presidency in the general election.

College freshman Grant Dubler is a native of Palm Beach County and lived in the state during the 2000 election. His family is weathering this year's campaign storm, as well.

"My dad is a registered Republican and has been getting a lot of direct mail [from the candidates]," Dubler said. "It's getting pretty dirty."

A Florida victory for Romney or McCain would significantly improve either candidate's presidential aspirations, forcing both into "anything goes" strategies.

Over the weekend, Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez, both of Florida, campaigned for McCain in an attempt to show that the Florida GOP establishment is behind him.

"Florida will be a test for those endorsements," said St. Joseph's University political science professor Randall Miller. "It should translate into votes. But personally, I don't think there will be any knock-out blows."