Eight teams. Until 1950, that's how many schools competed in the NCAA Tournament each year. With 145 schools participating in Division I play, that meant just over five percent of teams would compete for a national title.
But last week, college coaches discussed nearly doubling the number of teams that make the Big Dance, from 65 to 128.
The idea failed -- for now -- but why even consider messing with such a successful formula?
The league's coaches are in favor of the idea because more tournament berths allow more coaches to impress their bosses each spring, meaning more raises and fewer firings -- not to mention the money the NCAA would see from television rights and gate receipts.
Jim Haney, the executive director of the National Association of Basketball Coaches, has tried offering this "alternative" explanation: that expansion is desirable because the current size "has been in place for a number of years," even as the division's membership grew.
That seems like a valid point. The 65-team March Madness began in 1985, but a steady increase in the number of Division I programs (from 282 in 1985 to 326 in 2006) has dropped the percentage of Tourney teams from 22.7 to 19.9.
However, that 22.7 percent was by far the most up to that point. Prior to that expansion, the maximum percentage was just 13.3. And now 20 percent is too low? Doubling the field to 128 would mean around 40 percent of teams would make it -- nearly half of the eligible teams.
This would cause a lasting and monumental change. The division's growth has always hovered around one percent per year. At this rate, it would take until 2033 just to get back to having 30 percent of teams in the tournament.
That's pretty ridiculous in its own right. What meaning does making the NCAA Tournament have if half of the teams make it each year? Not to mention the logistical nightmares of scheduling for 63 more games.
But even greater damage would be done to mid-major teams that already struggle to get exposure.
Currently, 65 teams make the Tournament. But a decent number of these are ranked outside the top 65 in RPI and enter thanks to an automatic bid. Penn, for example, was ranked 98th in the nation heading into the 2006 postseason, and would have had no chance at an at-large bid.
If the tournament expands to 128 teams, that would likely mean an additional 63 at-large bids would be awarded. This past season, 67 teams in the top 128 did not make the field, including 38 above Penn. If you take RPI as the determinant for automatic bids, the Quakers would have been 97th out of 128 instead of being the 59th best out of 65. Suddenly, instead of being a bottom team in a relatively small field, we're further from the bottom in a huge field.
Not an exactly an improvement. With 65 teams, every squad gets at least some publicity. With 128, would anybody really be bothered to care about the bottom few?
In terms of the actual competition, Penn would have to win its first game just to get back to where it was before! Yes, we would snap our NCAA losing streak pretty quickly. But we wouldn't be doing any better.
There's also been talk about much less drastic plans, such as adding three to seven teams. Even this damages the schools for whom getting to the Tournament really means something.
With three more teams, there would be four "play-in" games for 16-seeds. Assuming the three new at-large slots go to "bubble" teams ranked far above Penn, this would put 15-seeds in the play-in games.
Once again, the 2006 Quakers would have had to win a game just to get a chance at a top team, and would have then suffered the ignominy of being merely a play-in team.
Expansion is simply bad news for Penn -- whether it's damage to one of our only shots at national publicity or the danger of elimination before getting to a "real" game.
With the NCAA's recent announcement that the 2007 Tournament will stay at 65 teams for the time being, the bullet has been dodged for now. But for the sake of mid-majors and auto-bid teams everywhere, let's hope that the Big Dance doesn't get even bigger.
Matt Conrad is a senior physics major from Manalapan, N.J., and Senior Sports Editor of The Daily Pennsylvanian. His e-mail address is mlconrad@sas.upenn.edu.
