It can be viewed mathematically and objectively. It can also lead to hope or resignation. It is regression to the mean, and for the Penn men's lacrosse team, it translates to a 1-6 start after a very successful 2004 season.
After winning all of their home games last year and qualifying for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1989, the Quakers had lost five of their first six games in 2005.
The slide only continued with an 8-7 loss at Harvard on Saturday, a type of game that went Penn's way all of last season.
The game was back and forth, with the Quakers (1-6, 0-2 Ivy) coming back from a 3-1 deficit to take a 4-3 lead by halftime.
After Harvard (3-1, 1-0) responded with two goals to retake the lead, the Quakers got a pair of their own -- from senior Brian Amen and junior James Riordan -- to go on top one more time, 6-5.
The game of runs continued, with the Crimson scoring two, and then the Quakers getting one last goal from junior DJ Andrzejewski, for the final tie of the afternoon.
Then with 21 seconds left, Harvard junior midfielder Sean Kane put the final tally of the game by senior goalkeeper Denis Cole.
The Quakers had one last chance, but Andrejewski's shot was turned away with seven ticks remaining.
While it is far too early to give up Ivy championship hopes for this season, the Quakers need to steady their ship soon, because it is swiftly sinking.
Penn has now lost four games this season that were decided by three or fewer goals. Three of those were one-goal games, including the last two.
According to Quakers coach Brian Voelker, one of the biggest factors leading to Penn's recent cold streak is the loss of two key seniors from last year, attackman Will Phillips and goalie Ryan Kelly. Both were named honorable-mention All-Americans last season, and their absences have left a crater in both Penn's defense and offense.
According to Voelker, Penn made over 20 turnovers in the loss to the Crimson, and that type of play will never let a team -- whose biggest strength the last two years, in the coach's words, has been their "attitude" -- sneak by a more talented opponent.
"We just can't make so many mistakes," Voelker said, even though he added that the Quakers "play[ed] their tails off,"
But Voelker is uncertain how many of those turnovers are being caused by Penn's inexperience.
To respond, he has shuffled the line combinations repeatedly, but has still not found the magic mix to end the slide.
There has even been a change between the pipes, as Saturday was only Cole's second start of the season.
Senior attackman Zandy Reich -- who switched from midfield at the start of the season -- believes that the Quakers have the talent to have a successful year, but they just have to come together as a team more.
"As a captain I kind of feel like some of the blame obviously falls on me, from the top down," he said. "We don't have the confidence."
The Philadelphia native feels that if the Quakers would just relax and have more confidence, the tide may turn.
But Voelker believes that the team was playing above its talent level last year, and as is the case with many things in the world, the breaks are evening out.
"We got a little bit lucky last year," he said. "Some breaks fell our way.
"We weren't the most talented team in the country, but we made our own breaks, and things kind of fell into place for us. We probably weren't 'talented enough' to make the playoffs last year but we did what we had to do."
But in 2005, the Quakers are not getting the breaks that allowed them to be on the positive end of all of those one-goal games last season.
The odds have caught up to the Quakers for now, but they are still trying to outrun chance one more time.
