Talk examines Russian economy

An Estonian freshman, a Latvian graduate student and a Chase Manhattan banker joined 70 others at Steinberg-Dietrich Hall last night to gain insight into the complex and confusing world of Russian economics. Abel Aganbegyan, president of the Academy of National Economy, gave the first in a series of lectures organized by the Wharton Emerging Economics Program. Aganbegyan, a Russian economist, discussed his country's current transformation from a centrally-planned economy to one driven by market forces. According to Aganbegyan, the government should focus on two approaches to reaching a market economy: establishing equilibrium in the national economy and pushing market forces. Aganbegyan based his comments on a life spent analyzing and interpreting the economic changes in his country. He has watched his money disappear and reappear, and witnessed many economic crises. "Ninety to 95 percent of our problem is our own problem," Aganbegyan said. "It is impossible to help a big nation. There are 150 million people in Russia. It is impossible even to help 50 million." "However, Western support is crucial especially for its moral support," he continued. "If you see others support you, your power will increase." The support of the United States and its allies may help the current Russian government – which Aganbegyan strongly supports – defeat conservatives who support a return of Communist rule. Since the beginning of the reforms, Aganbegyan said, Russia's worst economic period was the first half of 1992 when the standard of living dropped twofold and prices increased sevenfold. At that time, 60 percent of enterprises became non-payment enterprises. After the Russian government moved to correct the situation by enacting various reforms, the value of money increased quickly, as did the rate of inflation, leading to short term hyper-inflation. Although there have been ups and downs and changes in leadership since the middle of 1992, Aganbegyan said the ability to pull out of the dire situation signals that slow change is possible. "Our situation is very bad, but it is not catastrophic," he said. Wendell Dunn, associate director of the Sol C. Snider Entrepreneurial Center, elaborated on Aganbegyan's comments. "When you go to Russia your heart bleeds," he said. "The Russian people have a long history of terror, bloodshed [and pain yet] they are the ultimate survivors.They will survive this, but it will not be over for a long time."